Belmond Ltd. (NYSE: BEL), a luxury hotel and travel operator, reports four distinct business segments: (1) Owned Hotels (86% of sales and 78% of EBITDA in 2016); (2) Owned Trains & Cruises (11% of revenue and 3% of EBITDA); (3) Management Fees (3% of sales and 9% of EBITDA in 2016); and (4) Earnings from Unconsolidated Companies (10% of EBITDA).
At less than 12x 2019E EV/EBITDA, BEL is undervalued relative to peers and the sum value of its diverse portfolio of one-of-a-kind assets. In recent years, the company has been monetizing non-core assets at premium valuations and executing on a growth strategy that targets adjusted EBITDA of $226-$256 million in 2020 (versus $128 million in 2016). As well, we would note that in 2007 and 2012, BEL garnered takeover offers from strategic players representing forward multiples of 21x and 17x EBITDA, respectively. Both offers were rejected as inadequate by the Board, which, because of a dual-class share structure, controls ~64% of the company’s voting power. Since that time, a majority of the Board has been replaced, and the company has a new CEO who has indicated to the shareholder base, which includes Starwood Capital, Southeastern, and GAMCO among the top 25, that the current dual-class structure is not “permanent.”
Considering our financial projections as well as peer, M&A, and asset valuations, value of $21 per share can be assigned to BEL’s Owned Hotel business, while its Owned Trains & Cruises could be valued at $1 per share. Management Fees and Earnings from Unconsolidated Companies could be valued at $4 per share. Accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt of ~$10 per share yields a base case sum-of-the-parts value of ~$16 per share. In a more bullish scenario, where previously offered takeout multiples are applied, value of $21-$26 per share could be derived.
Potential catalysts include the monetization of assets, execution of internal growth initiatives, the elimination of the dual-class share structure, and/or a strategic combination. Potential risks include a lack of execution, competition, leverage, currency fluctuations, geopolitical disruptions, natural disasters and/or a recession.