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The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 22, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update – APi Group (APG) – May 22, 2025 

Quick 2025 Investor Day Notes: New 2028E Financial Targets, an Upcoming Stock Split and Commentary Suggesting a Divestiture of Specialty Services is Possible (but not seemingly imminent); Fair Value Increased to $51 per share

We attended APG’s 2025 investor day in NYC where, as promised, the company provided new 2028E financial targets, including $10 billion-plus in consolidated sales, with an adj. EBITDA margin of 16%-plus and 60% of sales stemming from inspection, service & monitoring business and ~$2.5-$3 billion of cumulative free cash flow generation.

Separately, the company announced a 3-for-2 stock split, to take effect on June 30, 2025, for shareholders of record June 16th (after which the share count is expected to be ~415 million).

Our base case fair value estimate for Api Group (APG) is revised to $51 per share, reflecting a blended multiple of ~13.5x on F2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.1 billion along with projected net debt of ~$1.0 billion and a diluted share count of ~287 million.

Comprehensive Report: The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG) – May 12, 2025 

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) operates three segments: 1) U.S. Consumer, which is SMG’s core domestic lawn & garden business; 2) Hawthorne Gardening, a provider of indoor & hydroponic gardening supplies; and 3) Other which is essentially the company’s lawn & garden business in Canada.  During the pandemic era SMG’s stock had a dramatic ascent amid an unprecedented surge in demand; that said, as consumer trends normalized in the post-pandemic era the company was left with a bloated cost structure and an elevated leverage profile, which weighed heavily on SMG’s stock price.  Based on management guidance and commentary as well as peer and M&A valuations, SMG could, all told, be valued at ~$72 per share, assigning de minimis value to its remaining cannabis-related asset, Hawthorne.  Accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt of $61.50 per share yields a base case sum-of-the-parts fair value of ~$72 per share (with bull/bear cases of ~$81.00 and ~$63.00 per share). Potential catalysts include the monetization of assets, leverage reductions, and/or better than expected growth & margins. Risks include management execution, competition, changes in consumer preferences, leverage, weather/seasonality, and/or a decline in discretionary spending due to a recession or other geopolitical disturbances.

 

Radar Screen – May 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)*, TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 16, 2025

In response to the increase in European activist campaigns, carve-outs and spin-offs, we recently expanded our research team with two analysts to launch a new service – The European Special Situations Report, which provides valuation and fundamental research across a range of European restructuring opportunities.

This service includes comprehensive reports, updates and The Monthly Situation Monitor (download first edition here), which covers European activist campaigns, strategic reviews, potential spin-offs and other special situations.

To add this service to your subscription or discuss in further detail, please reply to this email or call+1-646-839-5566.

 

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE: Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – May 14, 2025

HOLN Shareholders Approve Amrize Spin-Off on-track for June; Dates & WI-Trading Info TBA; Maintain Pre-Spin BUY

On May 14, 2025, shareholders of Holcim AG (HOLN SW), which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, overwhelmingly approved the pending tax-free separation (on a one-for-one basis) of its North American business, which will be dubbed Amrize (and trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker AMRZ with a secondary listing on the SIX Swiss Exchange), from its remaining International business, which will maintain the current corporate moniker.  The transaction is on-track to be completed in June 2025 although specific dates and so-called “when-issued” trading information has yet to be definitively announced.

Additionally, at the 2025 Annual Meeting, HOLN also approved the previously announced 11% increase in its annual dividend to CHF 3.10 as well as elected Kim Fausing as Chairman of post-spin HOLN.  

We maintain our pre-spin BUY recommendation. On a post-spin basis, while we still await indications as to where the individual shares will ultimately begin trading in the so-called “when-issued” market, our initial bias leans toward Amrize (SpinCo), which offers higher growth, better margins, and, in our view, will eventually be added to the S&P 500 Index (potentially boosting demand for the shares).

ALERT: HCI Eyes a Potential Tax-Free Spin-Off of its IT Solutions Business, Exzeo, by Year-End 2025 – May 9, 2025

On May 8, 2025, after the market close, HCI Group (NYSE: HCI), a Florida-based property & casualty (P&C) insurer, announced the potential tax-free spin-off of its IT Solutions business, Exzeo (formally TypTap), from its core insurance operations via a potential tax-free separation that if ultimately enacted would be targeted for completion by the end of 2025, subject to customary conditions, including the filing & effectiveness of a Form 10 filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

In terms of valuation, the broader group of property & casualty (P&C) insurers, trade at ~2.5x book value and ~12.5x 2026E EPS while M&A activity in the non-Life Insurance sector, the average purchase multiple has been around ~16.5x in recent years, per Chain Bridge Research.  For its own part, HCI, which has seen its share appreciate materially in 2025, have generally traded at a premium to peers.  Applying a 12.5x multiple to 2026E EPS yields a preliminary fair value of $181.75 per share

ALERT: MCK Intends to Separate its Medical-Surgical Solutions Business; “Form and Timing” Remain to be Determined – May 9, 2025

On May 8, 2025, McKesson Corp. (NYSE: MCK), a pharmaceutical/medical supply distributor, announced the separation of its Medical-Surgical Solutions segment into an independent company.  Management contends the separation will help the remaining company “focus its capital deployment priorities on opportunities that best align with its long-term enterprise strategies” and further invest in higher growth, higher margin opportunities, namely Oncology & Biopharma Solutions. On the other hand, NewCo is expected to be “a differentiated medical surgical supply and solutions company with a compelling leadership position, attractive margins, and potential for growth acceleration across all the alternate sites of care markets”.

The U.S. Pharmaceutical and International segment’s largest competitors, per filings, are Cencora, Inc. (NYSE: COR) and Cardinal Health, Inc. (NYSE: CAH), which trade at ~16.5x 2026E EPS and ~12x 2026E EV/EBITDA. The Prescription Technology Solutions (or RxTS) and Medical -Surgical Solutions businesses compete with a broad range of national & regional players. For its own part, MCK has traded at ~20.5x and ~12.5x forward earnings and EBITDA, respectively, over the last 10-years and ~27.0x & ~12.5x over the last 5-years. Applying a blended multiple of ~20.5x to estimated 2026E EPS of ~$37.15 implies an preliminary per share value of $761.50, 10% above the current share price.

 

Radar Screen – May 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)*, TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – May 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – May 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 16, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Comprehensive Report: The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG) – May 12, 2025 

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) operates three segments: 1) U.S. Consumer, which is SMG’s core domestic lawn & garden business; 2) Hawthorne Gardening, a provider of indoor & hydroponic gardening supplies; and 3) Other which is essentially the company’s lawn & garden business in Canada.  During the pandemic era SMG’s stock had a dramatic ascent amid an unprecedented surge in demand; that said, as consumer trends normalized in the post-pandemic era the company was left with a bloated cost structure and an elevated leverage profile, which weighed heavily on SMG’s stock price.  Based on management guidance and commentary as well as peer and M&A valuations, SMG could, all told, be valued at ~$72 per share, assigning de minimis value to its remaining cannabis-related asset, Hawthorne.  Accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt of $61.50 per share yields a base case sum-of-the-parts fair value of ~$72 per share (with bull/bear cases of ~$81.00 and ~$63.00 per share). Potential catalysts include the monetization of assets, leverage reductions, and/or better than expected growth & margins. Risks include management execution, competition, changes in consumer preferences, leverage, weather/seasonality, and/or a decline in discretionary spending due to a recession or other geopolitical disturbances.

 

Update: NPK International (NPKI) – May 2, 2025

NPKI reported solid 1Q 2025 results, modestly raised full-year guidance (amid robust demand, share gains and zero tariff exposure); ended 1Q 2025 with net cash despite repurchasing 2% of shares during the quarter

NPK International (NYSE: NPKI), which changed its corporate moniker from Newpark Resources in December 2024 following the sale of its Fluid Systems business, reported 1Q 2025 results with sales from continuing operations up ~32% to $64.8 million, driven by strength in demand for rentals of its core-composite matting products as well as share gains.  Operating income and adj. EBITDA were up ~93% and 59%, respectively, to $13.5 million and $19.7 million on margin expansion of 670 bps to 20.9% and 510 bps to 30.4%).  EPS more than doubled to $0.12.

Our base case fair value for NPKI (formerly NR) remains ~$9.50 per share based on a 10.5x multiple on 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$75.5 million (previously $73 million), while accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt/cash.

 

Radar Screen – May 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)*, TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 9, 2025

In response to the increase in European activist campaigns, carve-outs and spin-offs, we recently expanded our research team with two analysts to launch a new service – The European Special Situations Report, which provides valuation and fundamental research across a range of European restructuring opportunities.

This service includes comprehensive reports, updates and The Monthly Situation Monitor (download first edition here), which covers European activist campaigns, strategic reviews, potential spin-offs and other special situations.

To add this service to your subscription or discuss in further detail, please reply to this email or call+1-646-839-5566.

 

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

ALERT: HCI Eyes a Potential Tax-Free Spin-Off of its IT Solutions Business, Exzeo, by Year-End 2025 – May 9, 2025

On May 8, 2025, after the market close, HCI Group (NYSE: HCI), a Florida-based property & casualty (P&C) insurer, announced the potential tax-free spin-off of its IT Solutions business, Exzeo (formally TypTap), from its core insurance operations via a potential tax-free separation that if ultimately enacted would be targeted for completion by the end of 2025, subject to customary conditions, including the filing & effectiveness of a Form 10 filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

In terms of valuation, the broader group of property & casualty (P&C) insurers, trade at ~2.5x book value and ~12.5x 2026E EPS while M&A activity in the non-Life Insurance sector, the average purchase multiple has been around ~16.5x in recent years, per Chain Bridge Research.  For its own part, HCI, which has seen its share appreciate materially in 2025, have generally traded at a premium to peers.  Applying a 12.5x multiple to 2026E EPS yields a preliminary fair value of $181.75 per share

ALERT: MCK Intends to Separate its Medical-Surgical Solutions Business; “Form and Timing” Remain to be Determined – May 9, 2025

On May 8, 2025, McKesson Corp. (NYSE: MCK), a pharmaceutical/medical supply distributor, announced the separation of its Medical-Surgical Solutions segment into an independent company.  Management contends the separation will help the remaining company “focus its capital deployment priorities on opportunities that best align with its long-term enterprise strategies” and further invest in higher growth, higher margin opportunities, namely Oncology & Biopharma Solutions. On the other hand, NewCo is expected to be “a differentiated medical surgical supply and solutions company with a compelling leadership position, attractive margins, and potential for growth acceleration across all the alternate sites of care markets”.

The U.S. Pharmaceutical and International segment’s largest competitors, per filings, are Cencora, Inc. (NYSE: COR) and Cardinal Health, Inc. (NYSE: CAH), which trade at ~16.5x 2026E EPS and ~12x 2026E EV/EBITDA. The Prescription Technology Solutions (or RxTS) and Medical -Surgical Solutions businesses compete with a broad range of national & regional players. For its own part, MCK has traded at ~20.5x and ~12.5x forward earnings and EBITDA, respectively, over the last 10-years and ~27.0x & ~12.5x over the last 5-years. Applying a blended multiple of ~20.5x to estimated 2026E EPS of ~$37.15 implies an preliminary per share value of $761.50, 10% above the current share price.

 

ALERT:  SPGI Intends to Separate its Mobility Division via a Tax-Free Spinoff likely in 2H 2026 – April 29, 2025

S&P Global Inc. (NYSE: SPGI), a global data provider, intends to pursue the separation of its mobility division, S&P Global Mobility, into a standalone public company via a spin-off that is expected to qualify as tax-free for shareholders. The company expects the transaction to be completed within 12-18 months, subject to customary requirements and final Board approval. Management intends to provide additional information at an Investor Day scheduled for November 13, 2025.

Applying a blended multiple of ~30.5x to 2026E EPS (or a ~21.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, including debt) implies a preliminary, base case, sum-of-the parts value of ~$178.5 billion or ~$580 per share, 14% above the current share price.

 

Radar Screen – May 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)*, TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – May 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – April 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 9, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: NPK International (NPKI) – May 2, 2025

NPKI reported solid 1Q 2025 results, modestly raised full-year guidance (amid robust demand, share gains and zero tariff exposure); ended 1Q 2025 with net cash despite repurchasing 2% of shares during the quarter

NPK International (NYSE: NPKI), which changed its corporate moniker from Newpark Resources in December 2024 following the sale of its Fluid Systems business, reported 1Q 2025 results with sales from continuing operations up ~32% to $64.8 million, driven by strength in demand for rentals of its core-composite matting products as well as share gains.  Operating income and adj. EBITDA were up ~93% and 59%, respectively, to $13.5 million and $19.7 million on margin expansion of 670 bps to 20.9% and 510 bps to 30.4%).  EPS more than doubled to $0.12.

Our base case fair value for NPKI (formerly NR) remains ~$9.50 per share based on a 10.5x multiple on 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$75.5 million (previously $73 million), while accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt/cash.

 

Radar Screen – May 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)*, TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 2, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: NPK International (NPKI) – May 2, 2025

NPKI reported solid 1Q 2025 results, modestly raised full-year guidance (amid robust demand, share gains and zero tariff exposure); ended 1Q 2025 with net cash despite repurchasing 2% of shares during the quarter

NPK International (NYSE: NPKI), which changed its corporate moniker from Newpark Resources in December 2024 following the sale of its Fluid Systems business, reported 1Q 2025 results with sales from continuing operations up ~32% to $64.8 million, driven by strength in demand for rentals of its core-composite matting products as well as share gains.  Operating income and adj. EBITDA were up ~93% and 59%, respectively, to $13.5 million and $19.7 million on margin expansion of 670 bps to 20.9% and 510 bps to 30.4%).  EPS more than doubled to $0.12.

Our base case fair value for NPKI (formerly NR) remains ~$9.50 per share based on a 10.5x multiple on 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$75.5 million (previously $73 million), while accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt/cash.

 

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 2, 2025

In response to the increase in European activist campaigns, carve-outs and spin-offs, we recently expanded our research team with two analysts to launch a new service – The European Special Situations Report, which provides valuation and fundamental research across a range of European restructuring opportunities.
This service includes comprehensive reports, updates and The Monthly Situation Monitor (download first edition here), which covers European activist campaigns, strategic reviews, potential spin-offs and other special situations.
To add this service to your subscription or discuss in further detail, please reply to this email or call+1-646-839-5566.

 

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

ALERT:  SPGI Intends to Separate its Mobility Division via a Tax-Free Spinoff likely in 2H 2026 – April 29, 2025

S&P Global Inc. (NYSE: SPGI), a global data provider, intends to pursue the separation of its mobility division, S&P Global Mobility, into a standalone public company via a spin-off that is expected to qualify as tax-free for shareholders. The company expects the transaction to be completed within 12-18 months, subject to customary requirements and final Board approval. Management intends to provide additional information at an Investor Day scheduled for November 13, 2025.

Applying a blended multiple of ~30.5x to 2026E EPS (or a ~21.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, including debt) implies a preliminary, base case, sum-of-the parts value of ~$178.5 billion or ~$580 per share, 14% above the current share price.

 

UPDATE:  Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – April 25, 2025

HOLN On-Track to Complete its Separation in June 2025; Maintain Pre-Spin BUY

Holcim AG (HOLN SW), which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, is on track to complete the tax-free separation of its North American business, which will be dubbed Amrize (and trade on the NYSE under the ticker AMRZ with a secondary listing on the SIX), from its remaining International business (i.e., Europe, Latin America, North Africa & Australia), which will maintain the current corporate moniker (as well as its listing, domicile & ticker), likely in early-June 2025, subject to, among other things, shareholder approval at the Annual Meeting scheduled for May 14, 2025.

Shares of pre-spin HOLN currently trade at ~7.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA and we continue to think the upcoming transaction is likely to unlock value as shares of each company garners appropriate valuations in their respective equity markets. Thus, we maintain our pre-spin BUY recommendation. On a post-spin basis, while we still await indications as to where the individual shares will ultimately begin trading in the so-called “when-issued” market, our initial bias leans toward Amrize (SpinCo), which offers higher growth, better margins, and, in our view, will eventually be added to the S&P 500 Index (potentially boosting demand for the shares).

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – May 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – April 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – April 25, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG) – April 11, 2025

Topgolf Callaway has entered into an agreement to sell its Jack Wolfskin athletic apparel brand to ANTA Sports for $290 million in cash.  The transaction, which, by our calculation values the business at ~21x 2025E adj. EBITDA and 0.8x sales, is expected to close in late-2Q or early 3Q 2025.

Our base case fair value estimate for MODG remains $11.00 per share, reflecting a blended multiple of ~8.5x multiple on our 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$523.5 million and net debt of ~$2.2 billion.

Update: Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. (BATRK) – April 11, 2025

A new list of MLB valuations by CNBC values the Atlanta Braves at ~$3.1 billion (slightly higher than Forbes’ 2025 valuation of $3 billion).  The 2-year anniversary of the split-off from Liberty Media is late-July 2025.

Our base case fair value estimate remains $52.50 per share, 34% above the current share price, which reflects a ~$52 per share valuation for the Atlanta Braves MLB team, based on a 5.5x multiple of 2025E regular season ballpark sales, a ~$8.50 per share valuation for the company’s real estate/development assets, reflecting a 6.5% capitalization rate on our stabilized net operating income estimate, and net debt of ~$8 per share.

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – April 25, 2025

In response to the increase in European activist campaigns, carve-outs and spin-offs, we recently expanded our research team with two analysts to launch a new service – The European Special Situations Report, which provides valuation and fundamental research across a range of European restructuring opportunities.
This service includes comprehensive reports, updates and The Monthly Situation Monitor (download first edition here), which covers European activist campaigns, strategic reviews, potential spin-offs and other special situations.
To add this service to your subscription or discuss in further detail, please reply to this email or call+1-646-839-5566.

 

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE:  Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – April 25, 2025

HOLN On-Track to Complete its Separation in June 2025; Maintain Pre-Spin BUY

Holcim AG (HOLN SW), which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, is on track to complete the tax-free separation of its North American business, which will be dubbed Amrize (and trade on the NYSE under the ticker AMRZ with a secondary listing on the SIX), from its remaining International business (i.e., Europe, Latin America, North Africa & Australia), which will maintain the current corporate moniker (as well as its listing, domicile & ticker), likely in early-June 2025, subject to, among other things, shareholder approval at the Annual Meeting scheduled for May 14, 2025.

Shares of pre-spin HOLN currently trade at ~7.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA and we continue to think the upcoming transaction is likely to unlock value as shares of each company garners appropriate valuations in their respective equity markets. Thus, we maintain our pre-spin BUY recommendation. On a post-spin basis, while we still await indications as to where the individual shares will ultimately begin trading in the so-called “when-issued” market, our initial bias leans toward Amrize (SpinCo), which offers higher growth, better margins, and, in our view, will eventually be added to the S&P 500 Index (potentially boosting demand for the shares).

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – April 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – April 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – April 17, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

ABB GROUP LTD. (ABBN SW) – ALERT  – April 17, 2025

ABB to Spin-Off 100% of its Robotics Division with a Separate Listing Expected in 2Q 2026

On April 17, 2025, ABB Group, which is listed on the SIX Swiss exchange under the ticker ABBN SW, announced that it intends to seek shareholder approval at its 2026 Annual Meeting for a spin-off of 100% of its Robotics division, which would precipitate its listing as an independent/pure-play robotics company, in either Sweden or Switzerland, in 2Q 2026.  Accounting for corporate costs, capitalized at the corporate average, as well as projected net debt, including minority interests, implies a preliminary sum of the parts value of $92 billion, which based on a USD/CHF conversion rate of 0.84, yields a per share value of CHF 42 (based on a diluted share count of ~1,840 million).

 

SANDISK CORP. (SNDK) – UPDATE – April 14, 2025

Upgrade SNDK to BUY as Stock seems Tolerably Discounted Relative to the Revised Tariff Framework (and the Plausibility of Certain Exemptions for Electronics Products & Components, including Memory Drives)

Our current fair value estimate of $41 per share (previously $49.50 per share) implies ~31% of potential upside from current levels based on F2026E sales of ~$7.35 billion (compared with current consensus of $8.65 billion) and an 8.0x multiple (roughly in-line with peers MU & Samsung) on F2026E adj. EPS of ~$5.15.

 

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – April 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – April 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566