The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

• The Liberty Braves Group (BATRK) 
• APi Group Corp (APG)
• IAC Inc. (IAC) 

RECENT INITIATIONS:

• Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG)

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG) – April 11, 2025

MODG enters agreement to sell its Jack Wolfskin apparel brand for $290 million in cash; continues to work toward a separation of Topgolf in 2H 2025

Topgolf Callaway has entered into an agreement to sell its Jack Wolfskin athletic apparel brand to ANTA Sports for $290 million in cash.  The transaction, which, by our calculation values the business at ~21x 2025E adj. EBITDA and 0.8x sales, is expected to close in late-2Q or early 3Q 2025.

For context, in January 2019, the company acquired German-based Jack Wolfskin, an outdoor lifestyle brand providing apparel, footwear and equipment (e.g., backpacks, tents, and water bottles) designed for a range of outdoor activities, including camping, hiking, biking and skiing for ~€418 million (~$476 million) or ~1.25x & ~12x 2018 sales and adj. EBITDA.

The business had more recently been operating closer to the breakeven level from an EBITDA perspective amid a turnaround under a new management team seeking a more streamlined cost structure and a renewed focus on core markets outside the U.S., including central Europe and Asia.

Our base case fair value estimate for MODG remains $11.00 per share, reflecting a blended multiple of ~8.5x multiple on our 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$523.5 million and net debt of ~$2.2 billion.

Update: Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. (BATRK) – April 11, 2025

A new list of MLB valuations by CNBC values the Atlanta Braves at ~$3.1 billion (slightly higher than Forbes’ 2025 valuation of $3 billion); 2-year anniversary of split-off approaching in late-July 2025; our fair value estimate remains to ~$52.50 per share 

CNBC put out its inaugural (as far as we can tell) compilation of Major League Baseball teams that valued the Atlanta Braves at $3.1 billion, ranking it the league’s 8^th most valuable franchise.

Recall, back in late-March, Forbes’ released its perennial 2025 appraisals of MLB teams, which valued the Braves at $3 billion, implying a 7% year over year increase (and a ~66.6% rise compared with its 2020 valuation of ~$1.8 billion).  Similarly, the valuation put the team in the 8^th spot (up from 11^th in 2020) in terms of league-wide comparisons with the New York Yankees remining in the top spot with an estimated price tag of more than $8 billion.

Unrelatedly, recall that on July 18, 2023, after the market close, Liberty Media completed the split-off of Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc., which included full ownership of The Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball team, its stadium, Truist Park, as well as the adjacent mixed-use development, The Battery Atlanta, into a separate, publicly traded, asset-backed equity.

Our base case fair value estimate remains $52.50 per share, reflecting a ~$52 per share valuation for the Atlanta Braves MLB team, based on a 5.5x multiple of 2025E regular season ballpark sales, a ~$8.50 per share valuation for the company’s real estate/development assets, reflecting a 6.5% capitalization rate on our stabilized net operating income estimate, and net debt of ~$8 per share.

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

• Spectrum Brands (SPB) / Home & Personal Care Business – 1H 2025 (sale more likely than spin-off)
• Holcim Ltd. (HOLN SW) / North American Business – May/June 2025
• DuPont Inc. (DD) / Electronics Business – 4Q 2025
• Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG) / Topgolf – 2H 2025
• Unilever PLC (UL) / Ice Cream Business – Mid 2025
• Continental AG (CON GR) / Automotive Group – 2H 2025
• Fortive Corp. (FTV) / Precision Technologies Business – 4Q 2025
• Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) / Cable Television Networks – 4Q 2025
• SKF AB (SKFB SS) / Automotive Business – 1H 2026
• FedEx (FDX) / FedEx Freight – 1H 2026
• Middleby Corp. (MIDD) / Food Processing Business – 1H 2026
• Aptiv PLC (APTV) / Electrical Distribution Systems – 1Q 2026
• Becton, Dickinson (BDX) / Biosciences & Diagnostics Solutions – 2026
• Teleflex (TFX) / Urology, Acute Care and OEM – Mid-2026
• Honeywell International (HON) / Advanced Materials / Automation and Aerospace– 2H 2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

CONTINENTAL AG (CON GR) – UPDATE – March 10, 2025

Continental AG To Spin-Off its Automotive Division by the End of 2025

Continental is the world’s third-largest automotive supplier. It operates across four segments: 1) Automotive; 2) Contract Manufacturing; 3) Tires; and 4) ContiTech (i.e., non-tire rubber and industrial plastics). Following the spin-off, Continental will have two fully independent, publicly traded entities: 1) Automotive Group (or SpinCo); and 2) New Continental (or RemainCo).

SpinCo will be a pure-play automotive technology & contract manufacturing company. In 2024, the assets proposed to be separated generated sales of €19.7 billion (~49% of Continental AG’s total sales).  RemainCo will consist of the Tires and ContiTech businesses, which together recorded €20.0 billion of sales in 2024 (or ~51% of total Continental AG sales). Post spin, RemainCo is expected to benefit from higher margins, improved cash generation, and higher return on capital employed, strengthening Continental’s financial position and supporting long-term growth plans. 

SpinCo could be compared with Aptiv (NYSE: APTV), Autoliv (NYSE: ALV), Faurecia (EPA: FRVIA), Gestamp (BME: GEST), OPMobility (EPA: OPM), Schaeffler (ETR: SHA), and Valeo (EPA: FR), which, on average, trade at ~7.1x 2025E EV/EBIT (in a range of 6.7-9.5x). RemainCo could be compared with other pure-play tire concerns, such as Michelin (ENXTPA: ML), Pirelli & C. S.p.A. (BIT: PIRC), and Bridgestone Corporation (TSE: 5108) which trade at ~8.5x median 2025E EV/EBIT (in a range of 7.0-8.8x).

Applying a 7.1x multiple to the mid-point of SpinCo’s 2025E EBIT guidance of €617.5 million implies a segment value of ~€4.4 billion, while applying an 8.5x multiple to RemainCo’s 2025E EBIT of ~€2.4 billion implies a segment value of ~€20.0 billion. Accounting for the net debt of ~€5.6 billion and pension liabilities of ~€2.8 billion, yields a preliminary pre-spin valuation of ~€15.6 billion or ~€78 per share, 16% above the current share price.

Middleby Corporation (MIDD) – ALERT – March 6, 2025

Middleby (NASDAQ: MIDD), a global foodservice provider of cooking equipment, industrial processing equipment, and residential appliances, intends to pursue the separation of its Food Processing business into a new, independent, publicly traded company via a tax-free spin-off that is expected to be completed in “early-2026”. Concurrent with the announcement, MIDD also added activist investor, Ed Garden (formerly of Trian and a ~1.4% holder) as well as Julie Bowerman (the chief marketing officer at J&J spin-off Kenvue) to its Board (while announcing the retirement of long-time director, John Miller, at the 2025 Annual Meeting).

RemainCo (the Commercial & Residential businesses) competes with a range of companies, including Electrolux AB (ELUXB SS), Haier Smart Home (600690 CH), Hoshizaki Corp. (6465 JT), Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW), which owns Hobart & Vulcan-Hart, Midea Group Co. (000333 CH), Panasonic Holdings Corp. (6752 JT), and Rational AG (RAA GY) as well as, more so on the residential front, LG Electronics Inc. (066570 KS), Samsung Electronics Co. (005930 KS), Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR), Bosch Ltd. (BOS IN), and Thermador Group (THEP FP).  The Food Service business, at least in the public markets, could be compared with JBT Marel Corp. (NYSE: JBTM) and GEA Group AG (G1A GY), which trade at ~10.5x.

Applying a blended multiple of ~12.0x EV/EBITDA to 2026E EBITDA for RemainCo and a ~10.5x multiple at SpinCo implies values of ~$9.55 billion and nearly $2.1 billion, respectively. Accounting for corporate costs, capitalized at the blended corporate average, as well as projected net debt yields a preliminary, base case, sum-of-the-parts valuation of ~$9.25 billion or ~$170.50 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~54.2 million).

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – April 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – February 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

• The Liberty Braves Group (BATRK) 
• APi Group Corp (APG)
• IAC Inc. (IAC) 

RECENT INITIATIONS:

• Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG)

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG) – April 11, 2025

MODG enters agreement to sell its Jack Wolfskin apparel brand for $290 million in cash; continues to work toward a separation of Topgolf in 2H 2025

Topgolf Callaway has entered into an agreement to sell its Jack Wolfskin athletic apparel brand to ANTA Sports for $290 million in cash.  The transaction, which, by our calculation values the business at ~21x 2025E adj. EBITDA and 0.8x sales, is expected to close in late-2Q or early 3Q 2025.

For context, in January 2019, the company acquired German-based Jack Wolfskin, an outdoor lifestyle brand providing apparel, footwear and equipment (e.g., backpacks, tents, and water bottles) designed for a range of outdoor activities, including camping, hiking, biking and skiing for ~€418 million (~$476 million) or ~1.25x & ~12x 2018 sales and adj. EBITDA.

The business had more recently been operating closer to the breakeven level from an EBITDA perspective amid a turnaround under a new management team seeking a more streamlined cost structure and a renewed focus on core markets outside the U.S., including central Europe and Asia.

Our base case fair value estimate for MODG remains $11.00 per share, reflecting a blended multiple of ~8.5x multiple on our 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$523.5 million and net debt of ~$2.2 billion.

Update: Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. (BATRK) – April 11, 2025

A new list of MLB valuations by CNBC values the Atlanta Braves at ~$3.1 billion (slightly higher than Forbes’ 2025 valuation of $3 billion); 2-year anniversary of split-off approaching in late-July 2025; our fair value estimate remains to ~$52.50 per share 

CNBC put out its inaugural (as far as we can tell) compilation of Major League Baseball teams that valued the Atlanta Braves at $3.1 billion, ranking it the league’s 8^th most valuable franchise.

Recall, back in late-March, Forbes’ released its perennial 2025 appraisals of MLB teams, which valued the Braves at $3 billion, implying a 7% year over year increase (and a ~66.6% rise compared with its 2020 valuation of ~$1.8 billion).  Similarly, the valuation put the team in the 8^th spot (up from 11^th in 2020) in terms of league-wide comparisons with the New York Yankees remining in the top spot with an estimated price tag of more than $8 billion.

Unrelatedly, recall that on July 18, 2023, after the market close, Liberty Media completed the split-off of Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc., which included full ownership of The Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball team, its stadium, Truist Park, as well as the adjacent mixed-use development, The Battery Atlanta, into a separate, publicly traded, asset-backed equity.

Our base case fair value estimate remains $52.50 per share, reflecting a ~$52 per share valuation for the Atlanta Braves MLB team, based on a 5.5x multiple of 2025E regular season ballpark sales, a ~$8.50 per share valuation for the company’s real estate/development assets, reflecting a 6.5% capitalization rate on our stabilized net operating income estimate, and net debt of ~$8 per share.

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

• The Liberty Braves Group (BATRK) 
• Matthews International Corp (MATW)
• TriMas Corp (TRS)
• APi Group Corp (APG)
• IAC Inc. (IAC) 

RECENT INITIATIONS:

• Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG)
• XPO, Inc (XPO)

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. – March 28, 2025

Forbes’ 2025 valuation for the Atlanta Braves rises ~7% to $3 billion, implying it remained the 8^th most valuable MLB franchise; 2-year anniversary of split-off approaching in late-July 2025; our fair value estimate pops to $52.50 per share (from $50 per share)

Forbes’ 2025 appraisals of Major League Baseball (MLB) teams valued the Atlanta Braves at $3 billion, implying a 7% year over year increase (and a ~66.6% rise compared with its 2020 valuation of ~$1.8 billion). 

In terms of the overall rankings, the Braves are purported to be the league’s 8^th most valuable franchise (up from 11^th in 2020) with the New York Yankees remining in the top spot with an estimated price tag of more than $8 billion.

Unrelatedly, recall that on July 18, 2023, after the market close, Liberty Media completed the split-off of Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc., which included full ownership of The Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball (MLB) team, its stadium, Truist Park, as well as the adjacent mixed-use development, The Battery Atlanta, into a separate, publicly traded, asset-backed equity.

Our base case fair value estimate lifts to $52.50 per share (from $50 per share), reflecting a ~$52 per share valuation for the Atlanta Braves MLB team, based on a 5.5x multiple of 2025E regular season ballpark sales, a ~$8.50 per share valuation for the company’s real estate/development assets reflecting a 6.5% capitalization rate on our stabilized net operating income estimate, and net debt of ~$8 per share 

Update: IDT Corporation (IDT)– March 28, 2025

Close coverage of IDT Corp. (IDT) with shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate and low visibility into potential catalysts

For context, shares appreciated ~9% (compared with a 23% increase in the S&P 500 and a ~10% decline in the Russell 2000) since our initial recommendation in October 2021.

While we continue to view IDT’s growth businesses, cash flow generation and net cash position positively, with the potential transactional catalysts (i.e., the potential separations of NRS and/or net2phone) seemingly on the back burner for the time being, we prefer to maintain a disciplined approach and close coverage/withdraw our recommendation, as of today’s close.

That said, we will continue to monitor shares for an opportunity to re-recommend if valuation shifts or incremental steps toward potential strategic alternatives materialize.

Update: Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) – March 21, 2025

Close coverage of Tiptree (TIPT) with shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate and low visibility into potential catalysts

For context, TIPT shares have increased ~62.5% (outperforming the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indexes by ~35.5% and 55%, respectively) since our initial recommendation in July 2023.

That said, with the shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate (and another attempt at an initial public offering for the insurance business seemingly unlikely in the immediate future) we prefer to maintain a disciplined approach and close coverage/withdraw our recommendation, as of today’s close.

As always, we will continue to monitor shares for an opportunity to re-recommend if valuation shifts or incremental catalysts (e.g., an IPO for Fortegra) re-emerge.

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

• Spectrum Brands (SPB) / Home & Personal Care Business – 1H 2025 (sale more likely than spin-off)
• Holcim Ltd. (HOLN SW) / North American Business – May/June 2025
• DuPont Inc. (DD) / Electronics Business – 4Q 2025
• Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG) / Topgolf – 2H 2025
• Unilever PLC (UL) / Ice Cream Business – Mid 2025
• Continental AG (CON GR) / Automotive Group – 2H 2025
• Fortive Corp. (FTV) / Precision Technologies Business – 4Q 2025
• Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) / Cable Television Networks – 4Q 2025
• SKF AB (SKFB SS) / Automotive Business – 1H 2026
• FedEx (FDX) / FedEx Freight – 1H 2026
• Middleby Corp. (MIDD) / Food Processing Business – 1H 2026
• Aptiv PLC (APTV) / Electrical Distribution Systems – 1Q 2026
• Becton, Dickinson (BDX) / Biosciences & Diagnostics Solutions – 2026
• Teleflex (TFX) / Urology, Acute Care and OEM – Mid-2026
• Honeywell International (HON) / Advanced Materials / Automation and Aerospace– 2H 2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

CONTINENTAL AG (CON GR) – UPDATE – March 10, 2025

Continental AG To Spin-Off its Automotive Division by the End of 2025

Continental is the world’s third-largest automotive supplier. It operates across four segments: 1) Automotive; 2) Contract Manufacturing; 3) Tires; and 4) ContiTech (i.e., non-tire rubber and industrial plastics). Following the spin-off, Continental will have two fully independent, publicly traded entities: 1) Automotive Group (or SpinCo); and 2) New Continental (or RemainCo).

SpinCo will be a pure-play automotive technology & contract manufacturing company. In 2024, the assets proposed to be separated generated sales of €19.7 billion (~49% of Continental AG’s total sales).  RemainCo will consist of the Tires and ContiTech businesses, which together recorded €20.0 billion of sales in 2024 (or ~51% of total Continental AG sales). Post spin, RemainCo is expected to benefit from higher margins, improved cash generation, and higher return on capital employed, strengthening Continental’s financial position and supporting long-term growth plans. 

SpinCo could be compared with Aptiv (NYSE: APTV), Autoliv (NYSE: ALV), Faurecia (EPA: FRVIA), Gestamp (BME: GEST), OPMobility (EPA: OPM), Schaeffler (ETR: SHA), and Valeo (EPA: FR), which, on average, trade at ~7.1x 2025E EV/EBIT (in a range of 6.7-9.5x). RemainCo could be compared with other pure-play tire concerns, such as Michelin (ENXTPA: ML), Pirelli & C. S.p.A. (BIT: PIRC), and Bridgestone Corporation (TSE: 5108) which trade at ~8.5x median 2025E EV/EBIT (in a range of 7.0-8.8x).

Applying a 7.1x multiple to the mid-point of SpinCo’s 2025E EBIT guidance of €617.5 million implies a segment value of ~€4.4 billion, while applying an 8.5x multiple to RemainCo’s 2025E EBIT of ~€2.4 billion implies a segment value of ~€20.0 billion. Accounting for the net debt of ~€5.6 billion and pension liabilities of ~€2.8 billion, yields a preliminary pre-spin valuation of ~€15.6 billion or ~€78 per share, 16% above the current share price.

Middleby Corporation (MIDD) – ALERT – March 6, 2025

Middleby (NASDAQ: MIDD), a global foodservice provider of cooking equipment, industrial processing equipment, and residential appliances, intends to pursue the separation of its Food Processing business into a new, independent, publicly traded company via a tax-free spin-off that is expected to be completed in “early-2026”. Concurrent with the announcement, MIDD also added activist investor, Ed Garden (formerly of Trian and a ~1.4% holder) as well as Julie Bowerman (the chief marketing officer at J&J spin-off Kenvue) to its Board (while announcing the retirement of long-time director, John Miller, at the 2025 Annual Meeting).

RemainCo (the Commercial & Residential businesses) competes with a range of companies, including Electrolux AB (ELUXB SS), Haier Smart Home (600690 CH), Hoshizaki Corp. (6465 JT), Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW), which owns Hobart & Vulcan-Hart, Midea Group Co. (000333 CH), Panasonic Holdings Corp. (6752 JT), and Rational AG (RAA GY) as well as, more so on the residential front, LG Electronics Inc. (066570 KS), Samsung Electronics Co. (005930 KS), Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR), Bosch Ltd. (BOS IN), and Thermador Group (THEP FP).  The Food Service business, at least in the public markets, could be compared with JBT Marel Corp. (NYSE: JBTM) and GEA Group AG (G1A GY), which trade at ~10.5x.

Applying a blended multiple of ~12.0x EV/EBITDA to 2026E EBITDA for RemainCo and a ~10.5x multiple at SpinCo implies values of ~$9.55 billion and nearly $2.1 billion, respectively. Accounting for corporate costs, capitalized at the blended corporate average, as well as projected net debt yields a preliminary, base case, sum-of-the-parts valuation of ~$9.25 billion or ~$170.50 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~54.2 million).

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – April 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – February 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

• The Liberty Braves Group (BATRK) 
• Matthews International Corp (MATW)
• TriMas Corp (TRS)
• APi Group Corp (APG)
• IAC Inc. (IAC) 

RECENT INITIATIONS:

• Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG)
• XPO, Inc (XPO)

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. – March 28, 2025

Forbes’ 2025 valuation for the Atlanta Braves rises ~7% to $3 billion, implying it remained the 8^th most valuable MLB franchise; 2-year anniversary of split-off approaching in late-July 2025; our fair value estimate pops to $52.50 per share (from $50 per share)

Forbes’ 2025 appraisals of Major League Baseball (MLB) teams valued the Atlanta Braves at $3 billion, implying a 7% year over year increase (and a ~66.6% rise compared with its 2020 valuation of ~$1.8 billion). 

In terms of the overall rankings, the Braves are purported to be the league’s 8^th most valuable franchise (up from 11^th in 2020) with the New York Yankees remining in the top spot with an estimated price tag of more than $8 billion.

Unrelatedly, recall that on July 18, 2023, after the market close, Liberty Media completed the split-off of Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc., which included full ownership of The Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball (MLB) team, its stadium, Truist Park, as well as the adjacent mixed-use development, The Battery Atlanta, into a separate, publicly traded, asset-backed equity.

Our base case fair value estimate lifts to $52.50 per share (from $50 per share), reflecting a ~$52 per share valuation for the Atlanta Braves MLB team, based on a 5.5x multiple of 2025E regular season ballpark sales, a ~$8.50 per share valuation for the company’s real estate/development assets reflecting a 6.5% capitalization rate on our stabilized net operating income estimate, and net debt of ~$8 per share 

Update: IDT Corporation (IDT)– March 28, 2025

Close coverage of IDT Corp. (IDT) with shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate and low visibility into potential catalysts

For context, shares appreciated ~9% (compared with a 23% increase in the S&P 500 and a ~10% decline in the Russell 2000) since our initial recommendation in October 2021.

While we continue to view IDT’s growth businesses, cash flow generation and net cash position positively, with the potential transactional catalysts (i.e., the potential separations of NRS and/or net2phone) seemingly on the back burner for the time being, we prefer to maintain a disciplined approach and close coverage/withdraw our recommendation, as of today’s close.

That said, we will continue to monitor shares for an opportunity to re-recommend if valuation shifts or incremental steps toward potential strategic alternatives materialize.

Update: Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) – March 21, 2025

Close coverage of Tiptree (TIPT) with shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate and low visibility into potential catalysts

For context, TIPT shares have increased ~62.5% (outperforming the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indexes by ~35.5% and 55%, respectively) since our initial recommendation in July 2023.

That said, with the shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate (and another attempt at an initial public offering for the insurance business seemingly unlikely in the immediate future) we prefer to maintain a disciplined approach and close coverage/withdraw our recommendation, as of today’s close.

As always, we will continue to monitor shares for an opportunity to re-recommend if valuation shifts or incremental catalysts (e.g., an IPO for Fortegra) re-emerge.

Radar Screen – March 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Crown Castle Inc. (CCI), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA)*, XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

• Spectrum Brands (SPB) / Home & Personal Care Business – 1H 2025 (sale more likely than spin-off)
• Holcim Ltd. (HOLN SW) / North American Business – May/June 2025
• DuPont Inc. (DD) / Electronics Business – 4Q 2025
• Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG) / Topgolf – 2H 2025
• Unilever PLC (UL) / Ice Cream Business – Mid 2025
• Continental AG (CON GR) / Automotive Group – 2H 2025
• Fortive Corp. (FTV) / Precision Technologies Business – 4Q 2025
• Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) / Cable Television Networks – 4Q 2025
• SKF AB (SKFB SS) / Automotive Business – 1H 2026
• FedEx (FDX) / FedEx Freight – 1H 2026
• Middleby Corp. (MIDD) / Food Processing Business – 1H 2026
• Aptiv PLC (APTV) / Electrical Distribution Systems – 1Q 2026
• Becton, Dickinson (BDX) / Biosciences & Diagnostics Solutions – 2026
• Teleflex (TFX) / Urology, Acute Care and OEM – Mid-2026
• Honeywell International (HON) / Advanced Materials / Automation and Aerospace– 2H 2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

CONTINENTAL AG (CON GR) – UPDATE – March 10, 2025

Continental AG To Spin-Off its Automotive Division by the End of 2025

Continental is the world’s third-largest automotive supplier. It operates across four segments: 1) Automotive; 2) Contract Manufacturing; 3) Tires; and 4) ContiTech (i.e., non-tire rubber and industrial plastics). Following the spin-off, Continental will have two fully independent, publicly traded entities: 1) Automotive Group (or SpinCo); and 2) New Continental (or RemainCo).

SpinCo will be a pure-play automotive technology & contract manufacturing company. In 2024, the assets proposed to be separated generated sales of €19.7 billion (~49% of Continental AG’s total sales).  RemainCo will consist of the Tires and ContiTech businesses, which together recorded €20.0 billion of sales in 2024 (or ~51% of total Continental AG sales). Post spin, RemainCo is expected to benefit from higher margins, improved cash generation, and higher return on capital employed, strengthening Continental’s financial position and supporting long-term growth plans. 

SpinCo could be compared with Aptiv (NYSE: APTV), Autoliv (NYSE: ALV), Faurecia (EPA: FRVIA), Gestamp (BME: GEST), OPMobility (EPA: OPM), Schaeffler (ETR: SHA), and Valeo (EPA: FR), which, on average, trade at ~7.1x 2025E EV/EBIT (in a range of 6.7-9.5x). RemainCo could be compared with other pure-play tire concerns, such as Michelin (ENXTPA: ML), Pirelli & C. S.p.A. (BIT: PIRC), and Bridgestone Corporation (TSE: 5108) which trade at ~8.5x median 2025E EV/EBIT (in a range of 7.0-8.8x).

Applying a 7.1x multiple to the mid-point of SpinCo’s 2025E EBIT guidance of €617.5 million implies a segment value of ~€4.4 billion, while applying an 8.5x multiple to RemainCo’s 2025E EBIT of ~€2.4 billion implies a segment value of ~€20.0 billion. Accounting for the net debt of ~€5.6 billion and pension liabilities of ~€2.8 billion, yields a preliminary pre-spin valuation of ~€15.6 billion or ~€78 per share, 16% above the current share price.

Middleby Corporation (MIDD) – ALERT – March 6, 2025

Middleby (NASDAQ: MIDD), a global foodservice provider of cooking equipment, industrial processing equipment, and residential appliances, intends to pursue the separation of its Food Processing business into a new, independent, publicly traded company via a tax-free spin-off that is expected to be completed in “early-2026”. Concurrent with the announcement, MIDD also added activist investor, Ed Garden (formerly of Trian and a ~1.4% holder) as well as Julie Bowerman (the chief marketing officer at J&J spin-off Kenvue) to its Board (while announcing the retirement of long-time director, John Miller, at the 2025 Annual Meeting).

RemainCo (the Commercial & Residential businesses) competes with a range of companies, including Electrolux AB (ELUXB SS), Haier Smart Home (600690 CH), Hoshizaki Corp. (6465 JT), Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW), which owns Hobart & Vulcan-Hart, Midea Group Co. (000333 CH), Panasonic Holdings Corp. (6752 JT), and Rational AG (RAA GY) as well as, more so on the residential front, LG Electronics Inc. (066570 KS), Samsung Electronics Co. (005930 KS), Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR), Bosch Ltd. (BOS IN), and Thermador Group (THEP FP).  The Food Service business, at least in the public markets, could be compared with JBT Marel Corp. (NYSE: JBTM) and GEA Group AG (G1A GY), which trade at ~10.5x.

Applying a blended multiple of ~12.0x EV/EBITDA to 2026E EBITDA for RemainCo and a ~10.5x multiple at SpinCo implies values of ~$9.55 billion and nearly $2.1 billion, respectively. Accounting for corporate costs, capitalized at the blended corporate average, as well as projected net debt yields a preliminary, base case, sum-of-the-parts valuation of ~$9.25 billion or ~$170.50 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~54.2 million).

Radar Screen – March 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Crown Castle Inc. (CCI), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc., (WBA), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – March 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – February 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

• Spectrum Brands (SPB) / Home & Personal Care Business – 1H 2025 (sale more likely than spin-off)
• Holcim Ltd. (HOLN SW) / North American Business – May/June 2025
• DuPont Inc. (DD) / Electronics Business – 4Q 2025
• Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG) / Topgolf – 2H 2025
• Unilever PLC (UL) / Ice Cream Business – Mid 2025
• Continental AG (CON GR) / Automotive Group – 2H 2025
• Fortive Corp. (FTV) / Precision Technologies Business – 4Q 2025
• Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) / Cable Television Networks – 4Q 2025
• SKF AB (SKFB SS) / Automotive Business – 1H 2026
• FedEx (FDX) / FedEx Freight – 1H 2026
• Middleby Corp. (MIDD) / Food Processing Business – 1H 2026
• Aptiv PLC (APTV) / Electrical Distribution Systems – 1Q 2026
• Becton, Dickinson (BDX) / Biosciences & Diagnostics Solutions – 2026
• Teleflex (TFX) / Urology, Acute Care and OEM – Mid-2026
• Honeywell International (HON) / Advanced Materials / Automation and Aerospace– 2H 2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

CONTINENTAL AG (CON GR) – UPDATE – March 10, 2025

Continental AG To Spin-Off its Automotive Division by the End of 2025

On December 18, 2024, the Executive Board of Continental AG (CON GR) informed the Supervisory Board of its decision to proceed with the spin-off of 100% of CON’s Automotive Group. The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 and additional financial details, including short- and medium-term targets for the standalone Automotive Group, which is expected to be listed on the Frankfurt stock exchange, will be provided at a Capital Markets Day in the “summer of 2025”.

Continental is the world’s third-largest automotive supplier. It operates across four segments: 1) Automotive; 2) Contract Manufacturing; 3) Tires; and 4) ContiTech (i.e., non-tire rubber and industrial plastics). Following the spin-off, Continental will have two fully independent, publicly traded entities: 1) Automotive Group (or SpinCo); and 2) New Continental (or RemainCo).

SpinCo will be a pure-play automotive technology & contract manufacturing company. In 2024, the assets proposed to be separated generated sales of €19.7 billion (~49% of Continental AG’s total sales). Per management, SpinCo is expected to achieve sales of €22-€24 billion in the short term and €26-€29 billion over the medium term, with EBIT margins improving from 2% in 2024 to >6% in the short term and 6% to 8% in the medium term. However, in 2025, management’s guidance is for Automotive segment sales to remain under pressure, with a projected revenue base of €18-€20 billion and an adjusted EBIT margin of 2.5%-4.0%.

RemainCo will consist of the Tires and ContiTech businesses, which together recorded €20.0 billion of sales in 2024 (or ~51% of total Continental AG sales). Post spin, RemainCo is expected to benefit from higher margins, improved cash generation, and higher return on capital employed, strengthening Continental’s financial position and supporting long-term growth plans. RemainCo is expected to grow its revenue to €22-€24 billion and €25-€27 billion in the short and medium term, respectively, based on the guidance provided by management. The parent company currently holds an investment-grade credit rating, which we expect RemainCo will maintain, given its strong margin profile, higher replacement demand and relatively stable outlook. At least initially, we expect SpinCo’s capital structure should remain broadly aligned with the requirements for an investment-grade rating.

SpinCo could be compared with Aptiv (NYSE: APTV), Autoliv (NYSE: ALV), Faurecia (EPA: FRVIA), Gestamp (BME: GEST), OPMobility (EPA: OPM), Schaeffler (ETR: SHA), and Valeo (EPA: FR), which, on average, trade at ~7.1x 2025E EV/EBIT (in a range of 6.7-9.5x). RemainCo could be compared with other pure-play tire concerns, such as Michelin (ENXTPA: ML), Pirelli & C. S.p.A. (BIT: PIRC), and Bridgestone Corporation (TSE: 5108) which trade at ~8.5x median 2025E EV/EBIT (in a range of 7.0-8.8x).

Applying a 7.1x multiple to the mid-point of SpinCo’s 2025E EBIT guidance of €617.5 million implies a segment value of ~€4.4 billion, while applying an 8.5x multiple to RemainCo’s 2025E EBIT of ~€2.4 billion implies a segment value of ~€20.0 billion. Accounting for the net debt of ~€5.6 billion and pension liabilities of ~€2.8 billion, yields a preliminary pre-spin valuation of ~€15.6 billion or ~€78 per share, 13% above the current share price.

Middleby Corporation (MIDD) – ALERT – March 6, 2025

Middleby (NASDAQ: MIDD), a global foodservice provider of cooking equipment, industrial processing equipment, and residential appliances, intends to pursue the separation of its Food Processing business into a new, independent, publicly traded company via a tax-free spin-off that is expected to be completed in “early-2026”. Concurrent with the announcement, MIDD also added activist investor, Ed Garden (formerly of Trian and a ~1.4% holder) as well as Julie Bowerman (the chief marketing officer at J&J spin-off Kenvue) to its Board (while announcing the retirement of long-time director, John Miller, at the 2025 Annual Meeting).

RemainCo (the Commercial & Residential businesses) competes with a range of companies, including Electrolux AB (ELUXB SS), Haier Smart Home (600690 CH), Hoshizaki Corp. (6465 JT), Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW), which owns Hobart & Vulcan-Hart, Midea Group Co. (000333 CH), Panasonic Holdings Corp. (6752 JT), and Rational AG (RAA GY) as well as, more so on the residential front, LG Electronics Inc. (066570 KS), Samsung Electronics Co. (005930 KS), Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR), Bosch Ltd. (BOS IN), and Thermador Group (THEP FP).  The Food Service business, at least in the public markets, could be compared with JBT Marel Corp. (NYSE: JBTM) and GEA Group AG (G1A GY), which trade at ~10.5x.

Applying a blended multiple of ~12.0x EV/EBITDA to 2026E EBITDA for RemainCo and a ~10.5x multiple at SpinCo implies values of ~$9.55 billion and nearly $2.1 billion, respectively. Accounting for corporate costs, capitalized at the blended corporate average, as well as projected net debt yields a preliminary, base case, sum-of-the-parts valuation of ~$9.25 billion or ~$170.50 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~54.2 million).

Radar Screen – March 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Crown Castle Inc. (CCI), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc., (WBA), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – March 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – February 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

• The Liberty Braves Group (BATRK) 
• Matthews International Corp (MATW)
• TriMas Corp (TRS)
• APi Group Corp (APG)
• IAC Inc. (IAC) 

RECENT INITIATIONS:

• Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG)
• XPO, Inc (XPO)

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) – March 21, 2025

Close coverage of Tiptree (TIPT) with shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate and low visibility into potential catalysts

For context, TIPT shares have increased ~62.5% (outperforming the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indexes by ~35.5% and 55%, respectively) since our initial recommendation in July 2023.

That said, with the shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate (and another attempt at an initial public offering for the insurance business seemingly unlikely in the immediate future) we prefer to maintain a disciplined approach and close coverage/withdraw our recommendation, as of today’s close.

As always, we will continue to monitor shares for an opportunity to re-recommend if valuation shifts or incremental catalysts (e.g., an IPO for Fortegra) re-emerge.

Radar Screen – March 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Crown Castle Inc. (CCI), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA)*, XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

• Luxfer Holdings (LXFR)
• Tiptree Inc. (TIPT)

RECENT INITIATIONS:

• Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG)
• XPO, Inc (XPO)

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: NPK International (NPKI) – February 28, 2025

NPKI (formerly NR) reports full-year 2024 results; provides initial standalone 2025 guidance and expects its re-branding efforts post the Fluid Systems sale to be completed by the end of 1Q 2025

NPK International (new ticker NPKI), which changed its name from Newpark Resources (old ticker NR) in December 2024 following the sale of its oil field services business, reported full-year 2024 sales from continuing operations up ~5% to $217.5 million with operating income and adj. EBITDA up ~41% and 12%, respectively, to $32.4 million and $54.9 million.

NPKI, besides having already changed its corporate moniker & ticker, expects its “industry re-classification” (e.g., CUSIP) efforts to be complete by the end of 1Q 2025.

We think investors can still look forward to a potential re-rating of NPKI’s stock toward a valuation more in-line with specialty rental & services peers as opposed to a legacy oilfield services provider which has perplexingly not yet gained traction within the investment community despite the company’s current position as a pure-play provider of work access solutions focused on the global critical infrastructure complex, including the utility & energy transmission markets.  

Our base case fair value for NPKI (formerly NR) remains ~$9.50 per share based on a 10.5x multiple on 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$73 million, while accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt/cash.

Update: Luxfer (LXFR) – February 26, 2025

LXFR reports full-year 2024 results modestly ahead of expectations, in part due to some demand “pull-forwards” in its Defense markets; issues initial 2025E guidance; still sees the sale of Graphics Arts sale closing in 1H 2025 as “exclusive” talks with a new buyer

LXFR reported 3Q 2024 consolidated sales up 2.1% to $99.4 million with adj. EBITDA and EPS of $15.4 million and $0.32, respectively. 

Management indicated the timing for the closing of the sale of its Graphic Arts is now expected to be in 1H 2025 (versus previous commentary suggesting 2H 2024).  When pressed on its confidence in the new timing for a transaction management responded that given the level of interest it thought 1H 2025 was a “reasonable” expectation.

The company also reiterated its cognizance that the Gas Cylinders and Elektron businesses have “no material synergies” and that it is committed to continuously evaluating market conditions for opportunities to unlock value (that said, the divestment of the Graphic Arts business is seemingly its top current priority).

Our base case fair value estimate for LXFR remains $16.50 per share, reflecting values of ~$8 per share, ~$10 per share, and ~$0.50 per share for the Gas Cylinders, Elektron and Graphic Arts businesses, respectively. Accounting for projected net debt of ~$2 per share yields a base case sum-of-the-parts fair value of ~$16.50 per share (with bull and bear cases of ~$19 per share and ~$14 per share, respectively; see Exhibit #2 on page 2).

Radar Screen – March 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Crown Castle Inc. (CCI), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA)*, XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566