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The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 9, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: NPK International (NPKI) – May 2, 2025

NPKI reported solid 1Q 2025 results, modestly raised full-year guidance (amid robust demand, share gains and zero tariff exposure); ended 1Q 2025 with net cash despite repurchasing 2% of shares during the quarter

NPK International (NYSE: NPKI), which changed its corporate moniker from Newpark Resources in December 2024 following the sale of its Fluid Systems business, reported 1Q 2025 results with sales from continuing operations up ~32% to $64.8 million, driven by strength in demand for rentals of its core-composite matting products as well as share gains.  Operating income and adj. EBITDA were up ~93% and 59%, respectively, to $13.5 million and $19.7 million on margin expansion of 670 bps to 20.9% and 510 bps to 30.4%).  EPS more than doubled to $0.12.

Our base case fair value for NPKI (formerly NR) remains ~$9.50 per share based on a 10.5x multiple on 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$75.5 million (previously $73 million), while accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt/cash.

 

Radar Screen – May 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)*, TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 2, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: NPK International (NPKI) – May 2, 2025

NPKI reported solid 1Q 2025 results, modestly raised full-year guidance (amid robust demand, share gains and zero tariff exposure); ended 1Q 2025 with net cash despite repurchasing 2% of shares during the quarter

NPK International (NYSE: NPKI), which changed its corporate moniker from Newpark Resources in December 2024 following the sale of its Fluid Systems business, reported 1Q 2025 results with sales from continuing operations up ~32% to $64.8 million, driven by strength in demand for rentals of its core-composite matting products as well as share gains.  Operating income and adj. EBITDA were up ~93% and 59%, respectively, to $13.5 million and $19.7 million on margin expansion of 670 bps to 20.9% and 510 bps to 30.4%).  EPS more than doubled to $0.12.

Our base case fair value for NPKI (formerly NR) remains ~$9.50 per share based on a 10.5x multiple on 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$75.5 million (previously $73 million), while accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt/cash.

 

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 2, 2025

In response to the increase in European activist campaigns, carve-outs and spin-offs, we recently expanded our research team with two analysts to launch a new service – The European Special Situations Report, which provides valuation and fundamental research across a range of European restructuring opportunities.
This service includes comprehensive reports, updates and The Monthly Situation Monitor (download first edition here), which covers European activist campaigns, strategic reviews, potential spin-offs and other special situations.
To add this service to your subscription or discuss in further detail, please reply to this email or call+1-646-839-5566.

 

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

ALERT:  SPGI Intends to Separate its Mobility Division via a Tax-Free Spinoff likely in 2H 2026 – April 29, 2025

S&P Global Inc. (NYSE: SPGI), a global data provider, intends to pursue the separation of its mobility division, S&P Global Mobility, into a standalone public company via a spin-off that is expected to qualify as tax-free for shareholders. The company expects the transaction to be completed within 12-18 months, subject to customary requirements and final Board approval. Management intends to provide additional information at an Investor Day scheduled for November 13, 2025.

Applying a blended multiple of ~30.5x to 2026E EPS (or a ~21.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, including debt) implies a preliminary, base case, sum-of-the parts value of ~$178.5 billion or ~$580 per share, 14% above the current share price.

 

UPDATE:  Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – April 25, 2025

HOLN On-Track to Complete its Separation in June 2025; Maintain Pre-Spin BUY

Holcim AG (HOLN SW), which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, is on track to complete the tax-free separation of its North American business, which will be dubbed Amrize (and trade on the NYSE under the ticker AMRZ with a secondary listing on the SIX), from its remaining International business (i.e., Europe, Latin America, North Africa & Australia), which will maintain the current corporate moniker (as well as its listing, domicile & ticker), likely in early-June 2025, subject to, among other things, shareholder approval at the Annual Meeting scheduled for May 14, 2025.

Shares of pre-spin HOLN currently trade at ~7.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA and we continue to think the upcoming transaction is likely to unlock value as shares of each company garners appropriate valuations in their respective equity markets. Thus, we maintain our pre-spin BUY recommendation. On a post-spin basis, while we still await indications as to where the individual shares will ultimately begin trading in the so-called “when-issued” market, our initial bias leans toward Amrize (SpinCo), which offers higher growth, better margins, and, in our view, will eventually be added to the S&P 500 Index (potentially boosting demand for the shares).

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – May 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – April 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – April 25, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG) – April 11, 2025

Topgolf Callaway has entered into an agreement to sell its Jack Wolfskin athletic apparel brand to ANTA Sports for $290 million in cash.  The transaction, which, by our calculation values the business at ~21x 2025E adj. EBITDA and 0.8x sales, is expected to close in late-2Q or early 3Q 2025.

Our base case fair value estimate for MODG remains $11.00 per share, reflecting a blended multiple of ~8.5x multiple on our 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$523.5 million and net debt of ~$2.2 billion.

Update: Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. (BATRK) – April 11, 2025

A new list of MLB valuations by CNBC values the Atlanta Braves at ~$3.1 billion (slightly higher than Forbes’ 2025 valuation of $3 billion).  The 2-year anniversary of the split-off from Liberty Media is late-July 2025.

Our base case fair value estimate remains $52.50 per share, 34% above the current share price, which reflects a ~$52 per share valuation for the Atlanta Braves MLB team, based on a 5.5x multiple of 2025E regular season ballpark sales, a ~$8.50 per share valuation for the company’s real estate/development assets, reflecting a 6.5% capitalization rate on our stabilized net operating income estimate, and net debt of ~$8 per share.

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – April 25, 2025

In response to the increase in European activist campaigns, carve-outs and spin-offs, we recently expanded our research team with two analysts to launch a new service – The European Special Situations Report, which provides valuation and fundamental research across a range of European restructuring opportunities.
This service includes comprehensive reports, updates and The Monthly Situation Monitor (download first edition here), which covers European activist campaigns, strategic reviews, potential spin-offs and other special situations.
To add this service to your subscription or discuss in further detail, please reply to this email or call+1-646-839-5566.

 

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE:  Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – April 25, 2025

HOLN On-Track to Complete its Separation in June 2025; Maintain Pre-Spin BUY

Holcim AG (HOLN SW), which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, is on track to complete the tax-free separation of its North American business, which will be dubbed Amrize (and trade on the NYSE under the ticker AMRZ with a secondary listing on the SIX), from its remaining International business (i.e., Europe, Latin America, North Africa & Australia), which will maintain the current corporate moniker (as well as its listing, domicile & ticker), likely in early-June 2025, subject to, among other things, shareholder approval at the Annual Meeting scheduled for May 14, 2025.

Shares of pre-spin HOLN currently trade at ~7.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA and we continue to think the upcoming transaction is likely to unlock value as shares of each company garners appropriate valuations in their respective equity markets. Thus, we maintain our pre-spin BUY recommendation. On a post-spin basis, while we still await indications as to where the individual shares will ultimately begin trading in the so-called “when-issued” market, our initial bias leans toward Amrize (SpinCo), which offers higher growth, better margins, and, in our view, will eventually be added to the S&P 500 Index (potentially boosting demand for the shares).

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – April 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – April 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – April 17, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

ABB GROUP LTD. (ABBN SW) – ALERT  – April 17, 2025

ABB to Spin-Off 100% of its Robotics Division with a Separate Listing Expected in 2Q 2026

On April 17, 2025, ABB Group, which is listed on the SIX Swiss exchange under the ticker ABBN SW, announced that it intends to seek shareholder approval at its 2026 Annual Meeting for a spin-off of 100% of its Robotics division, which would precipitate its listing as an independent/pure-play robotics company, in either Sweden or Switzerland, in 2Q 2026.  Accounting for corporate costs, capitalized at the corporate average, as well as projected net debt, including minority interests, implies a preliminary sum of the parts value of $92 billion, which based on a USD/CHF conversion rate of 0.84, yields a per share value of CHF 42 (based on a diluted share count of ~1,840 million).

 

SANDISK CORP. (SNDK) – UPDATE – April 14, 2025

Upgrade SNDK to BUY as Stock seems Tolerably Discounted Relative to the Revised Tariff Framework (and the Plausibility of Certain Exemptions for Electronics Products & Components, including Memory Drives)

Our current fair value estimate of $41 per share (previously $49.50 per share) implies ~31% of potential upside from current levels based on F2026E sales of ~$7.35 billion (compared with current consensus of $8.65 billion) and an 8.0x multiple (roughly in-line with peers MU & Samsung) on F2026E adj. EPS of ~$5.15.

 

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – April 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – April 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – April 17, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG) – April 11, 2025

MODG enters agreement to sell its Jack Wolfskin apparel brand for $290 million in cash; continues to work toward a separation of Topgolf in 2H 2025

Topgolf Callaway has entered into an agreement to sell its Jack Wolfskin athletic apparel brand to ANTA Sports for $290 million in cash.  The transaction, which, by our calculation values the business at ~21x 2025E adj. EBITDA and 0.8x sales, is expected to close in late-2Q or early 3Q 2025.

For context, in January 2019, the company acquired German-based Jack Wolfskin, an outdoor lifestyle brand providing apparel, footwear and equipment (e.g., backpacks, tents, and water bottles) designed for a range of outdoor activities, including camping, hiking, biking and skiing for ~€418 million (~$476 million) or ~1.25x & ~12x 2018 sales and adj. EBITDA.

The business had more recently been operating closer to the breakeven level from an EBITDA perspective amid a turnaround under a new management team seeking a more streamlined cost structure and a renewed focus on core markets outside the U.S., including central Europe and Asia.

Our base case fair value estimate for MODG remains $11.00 per share, reflecting a blended multiple of ~8.5x multiple on our 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$523.5 million and net debt of ~$2.2 billion.

Update: Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. (BATRK) – April 11, 2025

A new list of MLB valuations by CNBC values the Atlanta Braves at ~$3.1 billion (slightly higher than Forbes’ 2025 valuation of $3 billion); 2-year anniversary of split-off approaching in late-July 2025; our fair value estimate remains to ~$52.50 per share 

CNBC put out its inaugural (as far as we can tell) compilation of Major League Baseball teams that valued the Atlanta Braves at $3.1 billion, ranking it the league’s 8th most valuable franchise.

Recall, back in late-March, Forbes’ released its perennial 2025 appraisals of MLB teams, which valued the Braves at $3 billion, implying a 7% year over year increase (and a ~66.6% rise compared with its 2020 valuation of ~$1.8 billion).  Similarly, the valuation put the team in the 8th spot (up from 11th in 2020) in terms of league-wide comparisons with the New York Yankees remining in the top spot with an estimated price tag of more than $8 billion.

Unrelatedly, recall that on July 18, 2023, after the market close, Liberty Media completed the split-off of Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc., which included full ownership of The Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball team, its stadium, Truist Park, as well as the adjacent mixed-use development, The Battery Atlanta, into a separate, publicly traded, asset-backed equity.

Our base case fair value estimate remains $52.50 per share, reflecting a ~$52 per share valuation for the Atlanta Braves MLB team, based on a 5.5x multiple of 2025E regular season ballpark sales, a ~$8.50 per share valuation for the company’s real estate/development assets, reflecting a 6.5% capitalization rate on our stabilized net operating income estimate, and net debt of ~$8 per share.

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – April 11, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

CONTINENTAL AG (CON GR) – UPDATE – March 10, 2025

Continental AG To Spin-Off its Automotive Division by the End of 2025

Continental is the world’s third-largest automotive supplier. It operates across four segments: 1) Automotive; 2) Contract Manufacturing; 3) Tires; and 4) ContiTech (i.e., non-tire rubber and industrial plastics). Following the spin-off, Continental will have two fully independent, publicly traded entities: 1) Automotive Group (or SpinCo); and 2) New Continental (or RemainCo).

SpinCo will be a pure-play automotive technology & contract manufacturing company. In 2024, the assets proposed to be separated generated sales of €19.7 billion (~49% of Continental AG’s total sales).  RemainCo will consist of the Tires and ContiTech businesses, which together recorded €20.0 billion of sales in 2024 (or ~51% of total Continental AG sales). Post spin, RemainCo is expected to benefit from higher margins, improved cash generation, and higher return on capital employed, strengthening Continental’s financial position and supporting long-term growth plans. 

SpinCo could be compared with Aptiv (NYSE: APTV), Autoliv (NYSE: ALV), Faurecia (EPA: FRVIA), Gestamp (BME: GEST), OPMobility (EPA: OPM), Schaeffler (ETR: SHA), and Valeo (EPA: FR), which, on average, trade at ~7.1x 2025E EV/EBIT (in a range of 6.7-9.5x). RemainCo could be compared with other pure-play tire concerns, such as Michelin (ENXTPA: ML), Pirelli & C. S.p.A. (BIT: PIRC), and Bridgestone Corporation (TSE: 5108) which trade at ~8.5x median 2025E EV/EBIT (in a range of 7.0-8.8x).

Applying a 7.1x multiple to the mid-point of SpinCo’s 2025E EBIT guidance of €617.5 million implies a segment value of ~€4.4 billion, while applying an 8.5x multiple to RemainCo’s 2025E EBIT of ~€2.4 billion implies a segment value of ~€20.0 billion. Accounting for the net debt of ~€5.6 billion and pension liabilities of ~€2.8 billion, yields a preliminary pre-spin valuation of ~€15.6 billion or ~€78 per share, 16% above the current share price.

 

Middleby Corporation (MIDD) – ALERT – March 6, 2025

Middleby (NASDAQ: MIDD), a global foodservice provider of cooking equipment, industrial processing equipment, and residential appliances, intends to pursue the separation of its Food Processing business into a new, independent, publicly traded company via a tax-free spin-off that is expected to be completed in “early-2026”. Concurrent with the announcement, MIDD also added activist investor, Ed Garden (formerly of Trian and a ~1.4% holder) as well as Julie Bowerman (the chief marketing officer at J&J spin-off Kenvue) to its Board (while announcing the retirement of long-time director, John Miller, at the 2025 Annual Meeting).

RemainCo (the Commercial & Residential businesses) competes with a range of companies, including Electrolux AB (ELUXB SS), Haier Smart Home (600690 CH), Hoshizaki Corp. (6465 JT), Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW), which owns Hobart & Vulcan-Hart, Midea Group Co. (000333 CH), Panasonic Holdings Corp. (6752 JT), and Rational AG (RAA GY) as well as, more so on the residential front, LG Electronics Inc. (066570 KS), Samsung Electronics Co. (005930 KS), Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR), Bosch Ltd. (BOS IN), and Thermador Group (THEP FP).  The Food Service business, at least in the public markets, could be compared with JBT Marel Corp. (NYSE: JBTM) and GEA Group AG (G1A GY), which trade at ~10.5x.

Applying a blended multiple of ~12.0x EV/EBITDA to 2026E EBITDA for RemainCo and a ~10.5x multiple at SpinCo implies values of ~$9.55 billion and nearly $2.1 billion, respectively. Accounting for corporate costs, capitalized at the blended corporate average, as well as projected net debt yields a preliminary, base case, sum-of-the-parts valuation of ~$9.25 billion or ~$170.50 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~54.2 million).

 

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – April 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – February 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – April 11, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG) – April 11, 2025

MODG enters agreement to sell its Jack Wolfskin apparel brand for $290 million in cash; continues to work toward a separation of Topgolf in 2H 2025

Topgolf Callaway has entered into an agreement to sell its Jack Wolfskin athletic apparel brand to ANTA Sports for $290 million in cash.  The transaction, which, by our calculation values the business at ~21x 2025E adj. EBITDA and 0.8x sales, is expected to close in late-2Q or early 3Q 2025.

For context, in January 2019, the company acquired German-based Jack Wolfskin, an outdoor lifestyle brand providing apparel, footwear and equipment (e.g., backpacks, tents, and water bottles) designed for a range of outdoor activities, including camping, hiking, biking and skiing for ~€418 million (~$476 million) or ~1.25x & ~12x 2018 sales and adj. EBITDA.

The business had more recently been operating closer to the breakeven level from an EBITDA perspective amid a turnaround under a new management team seeking a more streamlined cost structure and a renewed focus on core markets outside the U.S., including central Europe and Asia.

Our base case fair value estimate for MODG remains $11.00 per share, reflecting a blended multiple of ~8.5x multiple on our 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$523.5 million and net debt of ~$2.2 billion.

Update: Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. (BATRK) – April 11, 2025

A new list of MLB valuations by CNBC values the Atlanta Braves at ~$3.1 billion (slightly higher than Forbes’ 2025 valuation of $3 billion); 2-year anniversary of split-off approaching in late-July 2025; our fair value estimate remains to ~$52.50 per share 

CNBC put out its inaugural (as far as we can tell) compilation of Major League Baseball teams that valued the Atlanta Braves at $3.1 billion, ranking it the league’s 8th most valuable franchise.

Recall, back in late-March, Forbes’ released its perennial 2025 appraisals of MLB teams, which valued the Braves at $3 billion, implying a 7% year over year increase (and a ~66.6% rise compared with its 2020 valuation of ~$1.8 billion).  Similarly, the valuation put the team in the 8th spot (up from 11th in 2020) in terms of league-wide comparisons with the New York Yankees remining in the top spot with an estimated price tag of more than $8 billion.

Unrelatedly, recall that on July 18, 2023, after the market close, Liberty Media completed the split-off of Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc., which included full ownership of The Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball team, its stadium, Truist Park, as well as the adjacent mixed-use development, The Battery Atlanta, into a separate, publicly traded, asset-backed equity.

Our base case fair value estimate remains $52.50 per share, reflecting a ~$52 per share valuation for the Atlanta Braves MLB team, based on a 5.5x multiple of 2025E regular season ballpark sales, a ~$8.50 per share valuation for the company’s real estate/development assets, reflecting a 6.5% capitalization rate on our stabilized net operating income estimate, and net debt of ~$8 per share.

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – April 4, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update: Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. – March 28, 2025

Forbes’ 2025 valuation for the Atlanta Braves rises ~7% to $3 billion, implying it remained the 8th most valuable MLB franchise; 2-year anniversary of split-off approaching in late-July 2025; our fair value estimate pops to $52.50 per share (from $50 per share)

Forbes’ 2025 appraisals of Major League Baseball (MLB) teams valued the Atlanta Braves at $3 billion, implying a 7% year over year increase (and a ~66.6% rise compared with its 2020 valuation of ~$1.8 billion). 

In terms of the overall rankings, the Braves are purported to be the league’s 8th most valuable franchise (up from 11th in 2020) with the New York Yankees remining in the top spot with an estimated price tag of more than $8 billion.

Unrelatedly, recall that on July 18, 2023, after the market close, Liberty Media completed the split-off of Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc., which included full ownership of The Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball (MLB) team, its stadium, Truist Park, as well as the adjacent mixed-use development, The Battery Atlanta, into a separate, publicly traded, asset-backed equity.

Our base case fair value estimate lifts to $52.50 per share (from $50 per share), reflecting a ~$52 per share valuation for the Atlanta Braves MLB team, based on a 5.5x multiple of 2025E regular season ballpark sales, a ~$8.50 per share valuation for the company’s real estate/development assets reflecting a 6.5% capitalization rate on our stabilized net operating income estimate, and net debt of ~$8 per share 

Update: IDT Corporation (IDT)– March 28, 2025

Close coverage of IDT Corp. (IDT) with shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate and low visibility into potential catalysts

For context, shares appreciated ~9% (compared with a 23% increase in the S&P 500 and a ~10% decline in the Russell 2000) since our initial recommendation in October 2021.

While we continue to view IDT’s growth businesses, cash flow generation and net cash position positively, with the potential transactional catalysts (i.e., the potential separations of NRS and/or net2phone) seemingly on the back burner for the time being, we prefer to maintain a disciplined approach and close coverage/withdraw our recommendation, as of today’s close.

That said, we will continue to monitor shares for an opportunity to re-recommend if valuation shifts or incremental steps toward potential strategic alternatives materialize.

Update: Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) – March 21, 2025

Close coverage of Tiptree (TIPT) with shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate and low visibility into potential catalysts

For context, TIPT shares have increased ~62.5% (outperforming the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indexes by ~35.5% and 55%, respectively) since our initial recommendation in July 2023.

That said, with the shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate (and another attempt at an initial public offering for the insurance business seemingly unlikely in the immediate future) we prefer to maintain a disciplined approach and close coverage/withdraw our recommendation, as of today’s close.

As always, we will continue to monitor shares for an opportunity to re-recommend if valuation shifts or incremental catalysts (e.g., an IPO for Fortegra) re-emerge.

Radar Screen – April 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)*, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566