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The Weekly Wrap-Up – June 27, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update – APi Group (APG)- June 20, 2025 

APG to join the S&P MidCap 400 index, as of June 24th; the previously announced 3-for-2 stock split still set for June 30th 

APG will join the S&P MidCap 400 index (replacing U.S. Steel) effective prior to the market open on Tuesday June 24, 2025.

Separately, just as a reminder, the company’s previously announced 3-for-2 stock split will take effect on June 30, 2025.

Our base case fair value estimate for Api Group (APG) is revised to $52 per share (from $51 per share), reflecting a blended multiple of ~13.5x on F2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.1 billion along with projected net debt of ~$1.0 billion and a diluted share count of ~287 million (see Exhibit #8 on page 5).

 

Update – Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc. (BATRK) – June 18, 2025 

Investor day highlights the growing (and significant) value of BATRK’s real estate holdings (i.e., the Battery) with incremental NOI upside of ~$20 million from the Pennant Park acquisition; average valuation for the MLB team is still $3.0-$3.7 billion; 2-year anniversary of split-off is approaching in late-July 2025; fair value estimate increased to $56 (from ~$52.50 per share) 

Atlanta Braves Holdings (NASDAQ: BATRK) held its first investor day as a standalone company, following its split off from Liberty Media on July 18, 2023.

To be sure, the bulk of investor attention typically centers around the potential value of the Atlanta Braves major league baseball (MLB) team, which we note is valued at $3 billion by Forbes, $3.1 billion by CNBC, and $3.7 billion by Sportico (making it among the top-10 most valuable teams with the New York Yankees remining in the top spot at an estimated price tag of more than $8 billion). 

Our base case fair value estimate moves to $56 per share (up from $52.50 per share), reflecting a ~$52 per share valuation for the Atlanta Braves MLB team, based on a 5.5x multiple of 2025E regular season ballpark sales, a ~$12 per share (up from ~$8.50 per share) valuation for the company’s real estate/development assets (i.e., The Battery Atlanta), reflecting a 7.0% (previously 6.5%) capitalization rate on our stabilized net operating income estimate, and net debt of ~$7 per share.

Radar Screen – June 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE)*, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – June 20, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

COMPREHENSIVE REPORT: Fortive (FTV) – June 12, 2025

On September 4, 2024, Fortive Corporation (NYSE: FTV) announced its Board of Directors authorized the pursuit of a tax-free spin-off of its Precision Technologies (PT) business from its Intelligent Operating Solutions (IOS) and Advanced Healthcare Solutions (AHS) businesses.  The standalone Precision Technoligies business will adopt the corporate name of Ralliant Corporation and ultimately trade on the New York Stock Exchange Ticker (NYSE) under the ticker RAL.  The parent company will retain the Fortive Corp. moniker.  At least initially, the company targeted the transaction’s completion in 4Q 2025 but has accelerated its timeline with an expected completion after the market close on June 28, 2025 .  To that end, we attended the joint capital markets day held in NYC on June 10th and management has embarked on an equity roadshow in advance of the transaction’s completion.

 

ALERT: Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) – June 9, 2025

WBD to Separate its Cable & Streaming Businesses in a Tax-Free Transaction by Mid-2026

On June 9, 2025, before the market open, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBD), a global media & entertainment company formed by the Reverse Morris Trust merger of WarnerMedia and Discovery in April 2022, announced its intention to separate its Streaming & Studios and Global Networks businesses in a tax-free transaction expected to completed by mid-2026, subject to customary conditions, including final Board approval and the receipt of IRS/SEC assurances. The Streaming & Studios business, in which the parent company will retain a 20% stake, will include Warner Bros. Television, Warner Bros. Motion Picture Group, DC Studios, HBO & HBO Max, Warner Bros. Games, Tours, Retail & Experiences as well as existing studio production facilities and the associated properties film & television content libraries while the Global Networks business will include WBD’s entertainment, sports & news brands, including CNN, TNT Sports and Discovery, along with the company’s digital products/properties, including Discovery+ and the Bleacher Report.

Applying a ~6.5x blended multiple to 2026E adj. EBITDA yields segment value of ~$67 million. Accounting for corporate costs, capitalized at the segment average, as well as projected net debt yields a preliminary, sum-of-the-parts fair value estimate of more than $26 billion or ~$11 per share.

 

Radar Screen – June 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE)*, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – June 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – May 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – June 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – June 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – June 20, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update – APi Group (APG)- June 20, 2025 

APG to join the S&P MidCap 400 index, as of June 24th; the previously announced 3-for-2 stock split still set for June 30th 

APG will join the S&P MidCap 400 index (replacing U.S. Steel) effective prior to the market open on Tuesday June 24, 2025.

Separately, just as a reminder, the company’s previously announced 3-for-2 stock split will take effect on June 30, 2025.

Our base case fair value estimate for Api Group (APG) is revised to $52 per share (from $51 per share), reflecting a blended multiple of ~13.5x on F2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.1 billion along with projected net debt of ~$1.0 billion and a diluted share count of ~287 million (see Exhibit #8 on page 5).

 

Update – Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc. (BATRK) – June 18, 2025 

Investor day highlights the growing (and significant) value of BATRK’s real estate holdings (i.e., the Battery) with incremental NOI upside of ~$20 million from the Pennant Park acquisition; average valuation for the MLB team is still $3.0-$3.7 billion; 2-year anniversary of split-off is approaching in late-July 2025; fair value estimate increased to $56 (from ~$52.50 per share) 

Atlanta Braves Holdings (NASDAQ: BATRK) held its first investor day as a standalone company, following its split off from Liberty Media on July 18, 2023.

To be sure, the bulk of investor attention typically centers around the potential value of the Atlanta Braves major league baseball (MLB) team, which we note is valued at $3 billion by Forbes, $3.1 billion by CNBC, and $3.7 billion by Sportico (making it among the top-10 most valuable teams with the New York Yankees remining in the top spot at an estimated price tag of more than $8 billion). 

Our base case fair value estimate moves to $56 per share (up from $52.50 per share), reflecting a ~$52 per share valuation for the Atlanta Braves MLB team, based on a 5.5x multiple of 2025E regular season ballpark sales, a ~$12 per share (up from ~$8.50 per share) valuation for the company’s real estate/development assets (i.e., The Battery Atlanta), reflecting a 7.0% (previously 6.5%) capitalization rate on our stabilized net operating income estimate, and net debt of ~$7 per share.

Radar Screen – June 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE)*, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – June 13, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

COMPREHENSIVE REPORT: Fortive (FTV) – June 12, 2025

On September 4, 2024, Fortive Corporation (NYSE: FTV) announced its Board of Directors authorized the pursuit of a tax-free spin-off of its Precision Technologies (PT) business from its Intelligent Operating Solutions (IOS) and Advanced Healthcare Solutions (AHS) businesses.  The standalone Precision Technoligies business will adopt the corporate name of Ralliant Corporation and ultimately trade on the New York Stock Exchange Ticker (NYSE) under the ticker RAL.  The parent company will retain the Fortive Corp. moniker.  At least initially, the company targeted the transaction’s completion in 4Q 2025 but has accelerated its timeline with an expected completion after the market close on June 28, 2025 .  To that end, we attended the joint capital markets day held in NYC on June 10th and management has embarked on an equity roadshow in advance of the transaction’s completion.

 

ALERT: Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) – June 9, 2025

WBD to Separate its Cable & Streaming Businesses in a Tax-Free Transaction by Mid-2026

On June 9, 2025, before the market open, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBD), a global media & entertainment company formed by the Reverse Morris Trust merger of WarnerMedia and Discovery in April 2022, announced its intention to separate its Streaming & Studios and Global Networks businesses in a tax-free transaction expected to completed by mid-2026, subject to customary conditions, including final Board approval and the receipt of IRS/SEC assurances. The Streaming & Studios business, in which the parent company will retain a 20% stake, will include Warner Bros. Television, Warner Bros. Motion Picture Group, DC Studios, HBO & HBO Max, Warner Bros. Games, Tours, Retail & Experiences as well as existing studio production facilities and the associated properties film & television content libraries while the Global Networks business will include WBD’s entertainment, sports & news brands, including CNN, TNT Sports and Discovery, along with the company’s digital products/properties, including Discovery+ and the Bleacher Report.

Applying a ~6.5x blended multiple to 2026E adj. EBITDA yields segment value of ~$67 million. Accounting for corporate costs, capitalized at the segment average, as well as projected net debt yields a preliminary, sum-of-the-parts fair value estimate of more than $26 billion or ~$11 per share.

 

Radar Screen – June 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE)*, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – June 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – May 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – June 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – June 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – June 13, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update – The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG) – June 6, 2025 

SMG reaffirms F2025E guidance at an industry forum; reintroduces EPS guidance of “at least $3.50”; maintain $72 fair value estimate

SMG provided its customary mid-quarter update where it reaffirmed its previously articulated F2025E guidance calling for low-single digit growth in its U.S. Consumer business, an adjusted gross margin of ~30% and adjusted EBITDA of $570-$590 million. 

All told, our base case fair value estimate for Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG) remains $72 per share, which assigns de minimis value to its remaining cannabis-related supply asset, Hawthorne, and accounts for corporate costs and net debt.

 

Radar Screen – June 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE)*, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – June 6, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE: Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – June 2, 2025

HOLN Spin-Off AMRZ set to Begin Trading on June 23rd (with a Record Date of the 20th)

On June 2, 2025, Holcim AG (HOLN SW), which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, announced it plans to complete the tax-free separation of 100% (on a one-for-one basis) of its North American business, which will be called Amrize (and trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker AMRZ with a secondary listing on the SIX Swiss Exchange), from its remaining International business, which will maintain the current corporate moniker on June 23rd.  

In terms of indexation, AMRZ will be included in the Swiss Market Index (SMI) and the Swiss Leader Index (SLI) on its first day of trading (and intends to seek inclusion in the relevant U.S. equity indices, most reasonably, in our view, the S&P 500).  Post-spin parent, HOLN, will remain in both the SMI and SLI indexes.

Post-spin Holcim is, in our view, likely to trade more in-line with more International-focused peers, such as Buzzi SpA (BUZ IM), Cie de Saint Gobain SA (SGO FP), CRH plc (NYSE: CRH), and Heidelberg Materials AG (HEI GR), which, trade on average at ~8.0x 2026E EV/EBITDA. 

Shares of pre-spin HOLN currently trade at ~8.0x 2026E EV/EBITDA and we continue to think the upcoming transaction is likely to unlock value as shares of each company garner appropriate valuations in their respective equity markets. Thus, we maintain our pre-spin BUY recommendation. On a post-spin basis, while we still await indications as to where the individual shares will ultimately begin trading in the so-called “when-issued” market, our initial bias leans toward Amrize (SpinCo), which offers higher growth, better margins, and, in our view, will eventually be added to the S&P 500 Index (potentially boosting demand for the shares). 

ALERT: Medtronic plc (MDT) – May 22, 2025

MDT to Separate its Diabetes Business in late-2026 via a Tax-Free IPO/Split-Off 

Medtronic plc (MDT), a global healthcare technology company based in Ireland but headquartered in Minneapolis, announced the intent to separate its Diabetes business into a standalone public company. The transaction, which is “generally” expected to be tax-free to shareholders, will preferably be accomplished via an initial public offering (IPO) and a subsequent split-off within the next 18 months, subject to customary conditions, including final Board & regulatory approvals. The parent, MDT, expects the deal to be accretive to both gross and operating margins as well as EPS; management also plans to maintain its current dividend policy post-spin. As it relates to SpinCo, which accounted for ~7.5% of consolidated sales and ~3.5% of operating profit in F2025, management envisions a “scaled” and more focused player in intensive insulin management industry that will be “appropriately” capitalized.

Applying a blended multiple of 13x, based on individual segment margin profiles, to projected F2026E EBITDA and accounting for net debt yields a preliminary, base case, sum of the parts valuation of ~$128.5 billion or ~$100.00 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~1.286 billion).

 

Radar Screen – June 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE)*, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – June 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – May 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – June 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – May 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – June 6, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update – The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG) – June 6, 2025 

SMG reaffirms F2025E guidance at an industry forum; reintroduces EPS guidance of “at least $3.50”; maintain $72 fair value estimate

SMG provided its customary mid-quarter update where it reaffirmed its previously articulated F2025E guidance calling for low-single digit growth in its U.S. Consumer business, an adjusted gross margin of ~30% and adjusted EBITDA of $570-$590 million. 

All told, our base case fair value estimate for Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG) remains $72 per share, which assigns de minimis value to its remaining cannabis-related supply asset, Hawthorne, and accounts for corporate costs and net debt.

 

Radar Screen – June 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE)*, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 30, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

ALERT: Medtronic plc (MDT) – May 22, 2025

MDT to Separate its Diabetes Business in late-2026 via a Tax-Free IPO/Split-Off 

Medtronic plc (MDT), a global healthcare technology company based in Ireland but headquartered in Minneapolis, announced the intent to separate its Diabetes business into a standalone public company. The transaction, which is “generally” expected to be tax-free to shareholders, will preferably be accomplished via an initial public offering (IPO) and a subsequent split-off within the next 18 months, subject to customary conditions, including final Board & regulatory approvals. The parent, MDT, expects the deal to be accretive to both gross and operating margins as well as EPS; management also plans to maintain its current dividend policy post-spin. As it relates to SpinCo, which accounted for ~7.5% of consolidated sales and ~3.5% of operating profit in F2025, management envisions a “scaled” and more focused player in intensive insulin management industry that will be “appropriately” capitalized.

Applying a blended multiple of 13x, based on individual segment margin profiles, to projected F2026E EBITDA and accounting for net debt yields a preliminary, base case, sum of the parts valuation of ~$128.5 billion or ~$100.00 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~1.286 billion).

 

UPDATE: Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – May 14, 2025

HOLN Shareholders Approve Amrize Spin-Off on-track for June; Dates & WI-Trading Info TBA; Maintain Pre-Spin BUY

On May 14, 2025, shareholders of Holcim AG (HOLN SW), which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, overwhelmingly approved the pending tax-free separation (on a one-for-one basis) of its North American business, which will be dubbed Amrize (and trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker AMRZ with a secondary listing on the SIX Swiss Exchange), from its remaining International business, which will maintain the current corporate moniker.  The transaction is on-track to be completed in June 2025 although specific dates and so-called “when-issued” trading information has yet to be definitively announced.

Additionally, at the 2025 Annual Meeting, HOLN also approved the previously announced 11% increase in its annual dividend to CHF 3.10 as well as elected Kim Fausing as Chairman of post-spin HOLN.  

We maintain our pre-spin BUY recommendation. On a post-spin basis, while we still await indications as to where the individual shares will ultimately begin trading in the so-called “when-issued” market, our initial bias leans toward Amrize (SpinCo), which offers higher growth, better margins, and, in our view, will eventually be added to the S&P 500 Index (potentially boosting demand for the shares).

 

Radar Screen – May 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)*, TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – May 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – May 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – May 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 30, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update – APi Group (APG) – May 22, 2025 

Quick 2025 Investor Day Notes: New 2028E Financial Targets, an Upcoming Stock Split and Commentary Suggesting a Divestiture of Specialty Services is Possible (but not seemingly imminent); Fair Value Increased to $51 per share

We attended APG’s 2025 investor day in NYC where, as promised, the company provided new 2028E financial targets, including $10 billion-plus in consolidated sales, with an adj. EBITDA margin of 16%-plus and 60% of sales stemming from inspection, service & monitoring business and ~$2.5-$3 billion of cumulative free cash flow generation.

Separately, the company announced a 3-for-2 stock split, to take effect on June 30, 2025, for shareholders of record June 16th (after which the share count is expected to be ~415 million).

Our base case fair value estimate for Api Group (APG) is revised to $51 per share, reflecting a blended multiple of ~13.5x on F2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.1 billion along with projected net debt of ~$1.0 billion and a diluted share count of ~287 million.

Comprehensive Report: The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG) – May 12, 2025 

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) operates three segments: 1) U.S. Consumer, which is SMG’s core domestic lawn & garden business; 2) Hawthorne Gardening, a provider of indoor & hydroponic gardening supplies; and 3) Other which is essentially the company’s lawn & garden business in Canada.  During the pandemic era SMG’s stock had a dramatic ascent amid an unprecedented surge in demand; that said, as consumer trends normalized in the post-pandemic era the company was left with a bloated cost structure and an elevated leverage profile, which weighed heavily on SMG’s stock price.  Based on management guidance and commentary as well as peer and M&A valuations, SMG could, all told, be valued at ~$72 per share, assigning de minimis value to its remaining cannabis-related asset, Hawthorne.  Accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt of $61.50 per share yields a base case sum-of-the-parts fair value of ~$72 per share (with bull/bear cases of ~$81.00 and ~$63.00 per share). Potential catalysts include the monetization of assets, leverage reductions, and/or better than expected growth & margins. Risks include management execution, competition, changes in consumer preferences, leverage, weather/seasonality, and/or a decline in discretionary spending due to a recession or other geopolitical disturbances.

 

Radar Screen – May 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)*, TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – May 22, 2025

In response to the increase in European activist campaigns, carve-outs and spin-offs, we recently expanded our research team with two analysts to launch a new service – The European Special Situations Report, which provides valuation and fundamental research across a range of European restructuring opportunities.

This service includes comprehensive reports, updates and The Monthly Situation Monitor (download first edition here), which covers European activist campaigns, strategic reviews, potential spin-offs and other special situations.

To add this service to your subscription or discuss in further detail, please reply to this email or call+1-646-839-5566.

 

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

ALERT: Medtronic plc (MDT) – May 22, 2025

MDT to Separate its Diabetes Business in late-2026 via a Tax-Free IPO/Split-Off 

Medtronic plc (MDT), a global healthcare technology company based in Ireland but headquartered in Minneapolis, announced the intent to separate its Diabetes business into a standalone public company. The transaction, which is “generally” expected to be tax-free to shareholders, will preferably be accomplished via an initial public offering (IPO) and a subsequent split-off within the next 18 months, subject to customary conditions, including final Board & regulatory approvals. The parent, MDT, expects the deal to be accretive to both gross and operating margins as well as EPS; management also plans to maintain its current dividend policy post-spin. As it relates to SpinCo, which accounted for ~7.5% of consolidated sales and ~3.5% of operating profit in F2025, management envisions a “scaled” and more focused player in intensive insulin management industry that will be “appropriately” capitalized.

Applying a blended multiple of 13x, based on individual segment margin profiles, to projected F2026E EBITDA and accounting for net debt yields a preliminary, base case, sum of the parts valuation of ~$128.5 billion or ~$100.00 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~1.286 billion).

 

UPDATE: Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – May 14, 2025

HOLN Shareholders Approve Amrize Spin-Off on-track for June; Dates & WI-Trading Info TBA; Maintain Pre-Spin BUY

On May 14, 2025, shareholders of Holcim AG (HOLN SW), which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, overwhelmingly approved the pending tax-free separation (on a one-for-one basis) of its North American business, which will be dubbed Amrize (and trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker AMRZ with a secondary listing on the SIX Swiss Exchange), from its remaining International business, which will maintain the current corporate moniker.  The transaction is on-track to be completed in June 2025 although specific dates and so-called “when-issued” trading information has yet to be definitively announced.

Additionally, at the 2025 Annual Meeting, HOLN also approved the previously announced 11% increase in its annual dividend to CHF 3.10 as well as elected Kim Fausing as Chairman of post-spin HOLN.  

We maintain our pre-spin BUY recommendation. On a post-spin basis, while we still await indications as to where the individual shares will ultimately begin trading in the so-called “when-issued” market, our initial bias leans toward Amrize (SpinCo), which offers higher growth, better margins, and, in our view, will eventually be added to the S&P 500 Index (potentially boosting demand for the shares).

 

Radar Screen – May 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)*, TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – May 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – May 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – February 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – May 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566