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The Weekly Wrap-Up – August 1, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE: Western Digital Corp. (WDC) – July 31, 2025

  • On July 30, Western Digital (WDC), which spun off Sandisk (SNDK) in February 2025, reported 4Q F2025 results with sales up 30% year-over-year to $2.605 billion (versus consensus of $2.457 billion) and adjusted EPS of $1.66 (versus consensus of $1.47), up ~22%. 
  • The company benefited from strong demand for its nearline HDD products, in part driven by the rise of AI models and their favorable impact on the demand for unstructured data storage 
  • During the quarter, the company authorized $2.0 billion of share repurchases, of which the company exercised $149 million, as well as initiated a $0.10 quarterly dividend.
  • The company provided its 1Q 2026E outlook which calls for a ~22% increase in sales to $2.7 billion and adj. EPS of ~$1.54 (versus prior consensus of $2.545 billion and $1.40, respectively).  
  • Our FV increases to $77 per share based on a 12.5x multiple on F2026E adj. EPS of ~$6.10. 

 

ALERT: Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI) – July 30, 2025

  • On July 30, 2025, Resideo Technologies (REZI), a global provider of smart home products & systems that was itself spun-off from Honeywell (HON) in 2018, announced its intention to separate its ADI Global Distribution (ADI) business from its Products & Solutions (P&S) in 2H 2026
  • ADI is a global wholesale distributor of low-voltage products, such as security and audio-visual (AV) solutions, and P&S is a building products manufacturer focused on residential controls and sensing solutions. In the trailing twelve months ended March 2025, ADI revenue was $4.5 billion and P&S was $2.6 billion.
  • Along with today’s announcement, REZI indicated that it expects to report 2Q 2025 results above the high-end of its previous outlook, which called for consolidated sales of $1.805-$1.855 billion with adjusted EBITDA and EPS of $175-$195 million and $0.51-$0.61, respectively. For the full-year 2025E, REZI’s targets sales of $7.285-$7.485 billion along with adj. EBITDA and EPS of $725-$805 million and $2.23-$2.47, respectively (based on a diluted share count of ~150 million).
  • Based on a blended peer multiple of ~9.5x 2026E adj. EBITDA and projected net debt, including an anticipated 3Q payment to HON (relating to the elimination of future monetary obligations), yields a preliminary, sum-of-the-parts fair value of ~$4.5 billion or ~$30 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~150 million), 17% above the current share price.

Radar Screen – July 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)*, Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – August 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – May 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – June 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – July 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – July 25, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE: Fortive Corp. (FTV) – June 30, 2025

FTV Completes the Spin-Off of RAL; Initiate Both Post-Spin Entities at NEUTRAL

On June 28, 2025, Fortive Corporation (FTV) completed the tax-free spin-off of 100% of Ralliant Corporation (RAL).  Shareholders of record, as of June 16th, received one share of RAL for every three FTV shares owned. 

Ralliant replaced Wolfspeed (WOLF) in the S&P Small Cap 600 Index as of the open on July 1st while post-spin Fortive will remain in the S&P 500 Index. 

Following our initial pre-spin NEUTRAL recommendation earlier this month, shares of consolidated/pre-spin FTV rose ~0.5%. 

Beyond the standard rationale of increased strategic focus, reduced complexity, improved capital allocation and allowing investors to better focus their investment dollars, this transaction can be distilled into the separation of a recurring revenue business from a more cyclical one.  That said, while our current calculations, which are based on management guidance/commentary and peer/M&A valuations, suggest the transaction will unlock modest value, the potential upside does not strike us as overtly compelling at this time, considering the increased underlying market uncertainty that was alluded to in management’s aforementioned guidance commentary; thus, we are maintaining a NEUTRAL initial stance on shares of both post-spin FTV and RAL. 

Applying blended 2026E EV/EBITDA multiples of 15.5x and 16.5x at post-spin Ralliant (RAL) and Fortive (FTV), respectively, yields fair value per share estimates of ~$62 per share and ~$56 per share, respectively.

 

UPDATE: Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – June 23, 2025

HOLN Completes the Spin-Off of AMRZ; Initially Rate Shares of SpinCo at BUY and the Post-Spin Parent at NEUTRAL

AMRZ will be included in the Swiss Market Index (SMI) and the Swiss Leader Index (SLI) on its first day of trading and intends to seek inclusion in the relevant U.S. equity indices, most reasonably, in our view, the S&P 500. Management contends that the dual listing will not preclude its inclusion in the S&P 500 and that it meets other ancillary qualifying criteria, such as a domestic headquarters, although the concentration of trading volume remains to be seen.  Post-spin parent, HOLN, will remain in both the SMI and SLI indexes. 

AMRZ is being valued, based on our forecasts, at ~9.0x 2026E EBITDA, which is in-line with cement peers, such as Eagle Materials (EXP) and CRH plc (CRH) but a discount to aggregate peers, such as Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) and Vulcan Materials (VMC), which currently trade at ~14.5x, as well as its primary roofing peer, Carlisle Cos. (CSL), which trades at ~11.5x.  To that end, we apply a blended multiple of ~11.5x to our 2026E EBITDA forecast, based on a 14.0x multiple for the Aggregates business, a 9.0x multiple for Cement and 11x for Roofing, a modest discount to Carlisle Cos. (CSL), which yields a total segment value enterprise value of $41.85 billion or ~$66 per share. Given the implied 30% upside, we assign an initial rating of BUY. 

HOLN, which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, suggests that shares are trading at ~8.0x our 2026E EBITDA forecast compared with international-focused peers, such as Buzzi SpA (BUZ IM), Cie de Saint Gobain SA (SGO FP), CRH plc (CRH), and Heidelberg Materials AG (HEI GR), which currently trade, on average, at ~7.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA. Further, simply for reference the average forward M&A multiple within the broader/global Building Materials sector has been roughly 9.5x since 2015. For our part, applying a multiple of 7.5x to 2026E EBITDA, yields segment value of ~CHF 28.5 billion or ~CHF 51 per share.

 

Radar Screen – July 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)*, Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – July 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – May 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – June 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – July 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – July 25, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update – Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX)   – July 24, 2025 

GTX raises full-year 2025E guidance, partly driven by a more favorable currency dynamic; mid-point of current 2025E guidance still implies a FCF yield of ~15.5%; fair value increased to $14 per share (up from $12 per share)

GTX reported 2Q 2025 sales up 3% to $913 million as strength in gasoline & commercial vehicle verticals offset weakness in diesel and replacement products. Adj. EBITDA rose more than 2.5% to $154 million while adj. free cash flow (FCF) roughly doubled year-over-year to $121 million. GAAP net income improved more than 35% to $87 million.

In terms of guidance, the company increased its initial full-year 2025E outlook, which now calls for full-year 2025E sales of $3.4-$3.6 billion with GAAP net income and adjusted EBITDA of $233-$278 million and $590-$650 million respectively. Cash flow from operations is projected to be $370-$450 million, resulting in adj. free cash flow of $330-$410 million. 

In terms of the longer-term outlook, on which we remind investors that management has solid visibility, we broadly concur with management’s contention that the core turbocharger business is likely to be larger in 2030 than it is today and that GTX could generate free cash approximating the company’s current market capitalization over the next five years.

Our base case fair value estimate for GTX increases to $14 per share, reflecting an 8.5x multiple on our 2027E adjusted net income forecast and a fully diluted share count of ~179 million.

 

Comprehensive Report – Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)  – July 18, 2025 

Kenvue Inc. (KVUE) operates three segments: 1) Self Care, which is produces over-the-counter (OTC) pain, cough, cold & allergy medicines; 2) Skin Health & Beauty, which delivers face, body & hair care as well as sun protection products; and 3) Essential Health, which makes oral, baby, women’s health and wound care products.  As it relates specifically to Kenvue, which completed its separation from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) on August 23, 2023, the company under pressure from several activist-investors, including Starboard Value, a ~1.1% owner that secured three Board seats earlier this year, Third Point and TOMS Capital Management, which, for its part, is reportedly pushing for either an outright sale the further separation/monetization of assets. Based on management guidance and commentary as well as peer and M&A valuations, KVUE’s Self Care and Essential Health businesses could be valued at ~$28 per share while the Skin Health & Beauty business could be valued at ~$9 per share.  Accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt of $6.50 per share yields a base case sum-of-the-parts fair value of ~$26 per share. Potential catalysts include the monetization or separation of assets, an outright sale as well as better than expected growth & margins. Risks include management execution, competition, changes in consumer preferences, and/or a decline in consumer spending due to a recession or other geopolitical disturbances.

 

Radar Screen – July 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)*, Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – July 18, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE: Fortive Corp. (FTV) – June 30, 2025

FTV Completes the Spin-Off of RAL; Initiate Both Post-Spin Entities at NEUTRAL

On June 28, 2025, Fortive Corporation (FTV) completed the tax-free spin-off of 100% of Ralliant Corporation (RAL).  Shareholders of record, as of June 16th, received one share of RAL for every three FTV shares owned. 

Ralliant replaced Wolfspeed (WOLF) in the S&P Small Cap 600 Index as of the open on July 1st while post-spin Fortive will remain in the S&P 500 Index. 

Following our initial pre-spin NEUTRAL recommendation earlier this month, shares of consolidated/pre-spin FTV rose ~0.5%. 

Beyond the standard rationale of increased strategic focus, reduced complexity, improved capital allocation and allowing investors to better focus their investment dollars, this transaction can be distilled into the separation of a recurring revenue business from a more cyclical one.  That said, while our current calculations, which are based on management guidance/commentary and peer/M&A valuations, suggest the transaction will unlock modest value, the potential upside does not strike us as overtly compelling at this time, considering the increased underlying market uncertainty that was alluded to in management’s aforementioned guidance commentary; thus, we are maintaining a NEUTRAL initial stance on shares of both post-spin FTV and RAL. 

Applying blended 2026E EV/EBITDA multiples of 15.5x and 16.5x at post-spin Ralliant (RAL) and Fortive (FTV), respectively, yields fair value per share estimates of ~$62 per share and ~$56 per share, respectively.

 

UPDATE: Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – June 23, 2025

HOLN Completes the Spin-Off of AMRZ; Initially Rate Shares of SpinCo at BUY and the Post-Spin Parent at NEUTRAL

AMRZ will be included in the Swiss Market Index (SMI) and the Swiss Leader Index (SLI) on its first day of trading and intends to seek inclusion in the relevant U.S. equity indices, most reasonably, in our view, the S&P 500. Management contends that the dual listing will not preclude its inclusion in the S&P 500 and that it meets other ancillary qualifying criteria, such as a domestic headquarters, although the concentration of trading volume remains to be seen.  Post-spin parent, HOLN, will remain in both the SMI and SLI indexes. 

AMRZ is being valued, based on our forecasts, at ~9.0x 2026E EBITDA, which is in-line with cement peers, such as Eagle Materials (EXP) and CRH plc (CRH) but a discount to aggregate peers, such as Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) and Vulcan Materials (VMC), which currently trade at ~14.5x, as well as its primary roofing peer, Carlisle Cos. (CSL), which trades at ~11.5x.  To that end, we apply a blended multiple of ~11.5x to our 2026E EBITDA forecast, based on a 14.0x multiple for the Aggregates business, a 9.0x multiple for Cement and 11x for Roofing, a modest discount to Carlisle Cos. (CSL), which yields a total segment value enterprise value of $41.85 billion or ~$66 per share. Given the implied 30% upside, we assign an initial rating of BUY. 

HOLN, which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, suggests that shares are trading at ~8.0x our 2026E EBITDA forecast compared with international-focused peers, such as Buzzi SpA (BUZ IM), Cie de Saint Gobain SA (SGO FP), CRH plc (CRH), and Heidelberg Materials AG (HEI GR), which currently trade, on average, at ~7.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA. Further, simply for reference the average forward M&A multiple within the broader/global Building Materials sector has been roughly 9.5x since 2015. For our part, applying a multiple of 7.5x to 2026E EBITDA, yields segment value of ~CHF 28.5 billion or ~CHF 51 per share.

 

Radar Screen – July 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)*, Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – July 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – May 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – June 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – July 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – July 18, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Comprehensive Report – Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)  – July 18, 2025 

Kenvue Inc. (KVUE) operates three segments: 1) Self Care, which is produces over-the-counter (OTC) pain, cough, cold & allergy medicines; 2) Skin Health & Beauty, which delivers face, body & hair care as well as sun protection products; and 3) Essential Health, which makes oral, baby, women’s health and wound care products.  As it relates specifically to Kenvue, which completed its separation from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) on August 23, 2023, the company under pressure from several activist-investors, including Starboard Value, a ~1.1% owner that secured three Board seats earlier this year, Third Point and TOMS Capital Management, which, for its part, is reportedly pushing for either an outright sale the further separation/monetization of assets. Based on management guidance and commentary as well as peer and M&A valuations, KVUE’s Self Care and Essential Health businesses could be valued at ~$28 per share while the Skin Health & Beauty business could be valued at ~$9 per share.  Accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt of $6.50 per share yields a base case sum-of-the-parts fair value of ~$26 per share. Potential catalysts include the monetization or separation of assets, an outright sale as well as better than expected growth & margins. Risks include management execution, competition, changes in consumer preferences, and/or a decline in consumer spending due to a recession or other geopolitical disturbances.

 

Radar Screen – July 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)*, Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – July 11, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update – Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) – July 1, 2025 

GTX joins the Russell 2000 Index; mid-point of initial/current 2025E guidance, still implies a nearly 16% FCF yield

GTX announced its addition to the Russell 2000 Index, as of the market close on June 27th. While this clearly a positive development from an institutional ownership perspective we note that management also remains keen on attracting some formal sell-side research coverage.

In terms of the longer-term outlook, in which management has solid visibility (with ~80% of sales over next 5-years having already been award by its OEM customers and a historical win rate on new business of greater than 50%), we broadly concur with management’s contention that the core turbocharger business is likely to be larger in 2030 than it is today and that GTX could generate free cash approximating the company’s current market capitalization over the next five years.

Our base case fair value estimate for GTX remains ~$12 per share, reflecting an 8.5x multiple on our 2026E adjusted net income forecast of $257.5 million and a fully diluted share count of ~186 million.

 

Update – APi Group (APG) – July 1, 2025

Close Coverage of APi Group (APG)

Shares of Api Group (APG) appreciated ~55% (outperforming the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indexes by 49% and 58.5%, respectively) since our most recent initiation in October 2024.

That said, with shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate we prefer to maintain a disciplined and close coverage of APG.

As always, we will continue to monitor the shares for an opportunity to re-recommend if valuation shifts or more tangible steps toward potential strategic alternatives materialize. 

Radar Screen – July 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)*, Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – July 11, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE: Fortive Corp. (FTV) – June 30, 2025

FTV Completes the Spin-Off of RAL; Initiate Both Post-Spin Entities at NEUTRAL

On June 28, 2025, Fortive Corporation (FTV) completed the tax-free spin-off of 100% of Ralliant Corporation (RAL).  Shareholders of record, as of June 16th, received one share of RAL for every three FTV shares owned. 

Ralliant replaced Wolfspeed (WOLF) in the S&P Small Cap 600 Index as of the open on July 1st while post-spin Fortive will remain in the S&P 500 Index. 

Following our initial pre-spin NEUTRAL recommendation earlier this month, shares of consolidated/pre-spin FTV rose ~0.5%. 

Beyond the standard rationale of increased strategic focus, reduced complexity, improved capital allocation and allowing investors to better focus their investment dollars, this transaction can be distilled into the separation of a recurring revenue business from a more cyclical one.  That said, while our current calculations, which are based on management guidance/commentary and peer/M&A valuations, suggest the transaction will unlock modest value, the potential upside does not strike us as overtly compelling at this time, considering the increased underlying market uncertainty that was alluded to in management’s aforementioned guidance commentary; thus, we are maintaining a NEUTRAL initial stance on shares of both post-spin FTV and RAL. 

Applying blended 2026E EV/EBITDA multiples of 15.5x and 16.5x at post-spin Ralliant (RAL) and Fortive (FTV), respectively, yields fair value per share estimates of ~$62 per share and ~$56 per share, respectively.

 

UPDATE: Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – June 23, 2025

HOLN Completes the Spin-Off of AMRZ; Initially Rate Shares of SpinCo at BUY and the Post-Spin Parent at NEUTRAL

AMRZ will be included in the Swiss Market Index (SMI) and the Swiss Leader Index (SLI) on its first day of trading and intends to seek inclusion in the relevant U.S. equity indices, most reasonably, in our view, the S&P 500. Management contends that the dual listing will not preclude its inclusion in the S&P 500 and that it meets other ancillary qualifying criteria, such as a domestic headquarters, although the concentration of trading volume remains to be seen.  Post-spin parent, HOLN, will remain in both the SMI and SLI indexes. 

AMRZ is being valued, based on our forecasts, at ~9.0x 2026E EBITDA, which is in-line with cement peers, such as Eagle Materials (EXP) and CRH plc (CRH) but a discount to aggregate peers, such as Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) and Vulcan Materials (VMC), which currently trade at ~14.5x, as well as its primary roofing peer, Carlisle Cos. (CSL), which trades at ~11.5x.  To that end, we apply a blended multiple of ~11.5x to our 2026E EBITDA forecast, based on a 14.0x multiple for the Aggregates business, a 9.0x multiple for Cement and 11x for Roofing, a modest discount to Carlisle Cos. (CSL), which yields a total segment value enterprise value of $41.85 billion or ~$66 per share. Given the implied 30% upside, we assign an initial rating of BUY. 

HOLN, which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, suggests that shares are trading at ~8.0x our 2026E EBITDA forecast compared with international-focused peers, such as Buzzi SpA (BUZ IM), Cie de Saint Gobain SA (SGO FP), CRH plc (CRH), and Heidelberg Materials AG (HEI GR), which currently trade, on average, at ~7.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA. Further, simply for reference the average forward M&A multiple within the broader/global Building Materials sector has been roughly 9.5x since 2015. For our part, applying a multiple of 7.5x to 2026E EBITDA, yields segment value of ~CHF 28.5 billion or ~CHF 51 per share.

 

Radar Screen – July 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)*, Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – July 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – May 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – June 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – June 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – July 2, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE: Fortive Corp. (FTV) – June 30, 2025

FTV Completes the Spin-Off of RAL; Initiate Both Post-Spin Entities at NEUTRAL

On June 28, 2025, Fortive Corporation (FTV) completed the tax-free spin-off of 100% of Ralliant Corporation (RAL).  Shareholders of record, as of June 16th, received one share of RAL for every three FTV shares owned. 

Ralliant replaced Wolfspeed (WOLF) in the S&P Small Cap 600 Index as of the open on July 1st while post-spin Fortive will remain in the S&P 500 Index. 

Following our initial pre-spin NEUTRAL recommendation earlier this month, shares of consolidated/pre-spin FTV rose ~0.5%. 

For our part, we continue to think that beyond the standard rationale of increased strategic focus, reduced complexity, improved capital allocation and allowing investors to better focus their investment dollars this transaction can be distilled into the separation of a recurring revenue business from a more cyclical one.  That said, while our current calculations, which are based on management guidance/commentary and peer/M&A valuations, suggest the transaction will unlock modest value the potential projected upside does not strike us as overtly compelling at this time, particularly considering the increased underlying market volatility/uncertainty that was alluded to in management’s aforementioned guidance commentary; thus, we are maintaining a NEUTRAL initial stance on shares of both post-spin FTV and RAL. 

Applying blended 2026E EV/EBITDA multiples of 15.5x and 16.5x at post-spin Ralliant (RAL) and Fortive (FTV), respectively, yields fair value per share estimates of ~$62 per share and ~$56 per share, respectively.

 

UPDATE: Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – June 23, 2025

HOLN Completes the Spin-Off of AMRZ; Initially Rate Shares of SpinCo at BUY and the Post-Spin Parent at NEUTRAL

Holcim AG (HOLN SW), a global building materials concern, completed the tax-free spin-off of Amrize (AMRZ). 

AMRZ will be included in the Swiss Market Index (SMI) and the Swiss Leader Index (SLI) on its first day of trading and intends to seek inclusion in the relevant U.S. equity indices, most reasonably, in our view, the S&P 500. To that end, management contends that the dual listing will not preclude its inclusion in the S&P 500 and that it meets other ancillary qualifying criteria, such as a domestic headquarters, although the concentration of trading volume remains to be seen.  Post-spin parent, HOLN, will remain in both the SMI and SLI indexes. 

AMRZ is being valued, based on our forecasts, at ~9.0x 2026E EBITDA, which is in-line with cement peers, such as Eagle Materials (EXP) and CRH plc (CRH) but a discount to aggregate peers, such as Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) and Vulcan Materials (VMC), which currently trade at ~14.5x, as well as its primary roofing peer, Carlisle Cos. (CSL), which trades at ~11.5x.  To that end, we apply a blended multiple of ~11.5x to our 2026E EBITDA forecast, based on a 14.0x multiple for the Aggregates business, a 9.0x multiple for Cement and 11x for Roofing, a modest discount to Carlisle Cos. (CSL), which yields a total segment value enterprise value of $41.85 billion or ~$66 per share. Given the implied 35% upside, we assign an initial rating of BUY. 

HOLN, which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, suggests that shares are trading at ~8.0x our 2026E EBITDA forecast compared with international-focused peers, such as Buzzi SpA (BUZ IM), Cie de Saint Gobain SA (SGO FP), CRH plc (CRH), and Heidelberg Materials AG (HEI GR), which currently trade, on average, at ~7.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA. Further, simply for reference the average forward M&A multiple within the broader/global Building Materials sector has been roughly 9.5x since 2015. For our part, applying a multiple of 7.5x to 2026E EBITDA, yields segment value of ~CHF 28.5 billion or ~CHF 51 per share.

 

Radar Screen – July 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)*, Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – July 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – May 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – June 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – June 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – July 2, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

Update – Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) – July 1, 2025 

GTX joins the Russell 2000 Index; mid-point of initial/current 2025E guidance, still implies a nearly 16% FCF yield

GTX announced its addition to the Russell 2000 Index, as of the market close on June 27th.  (Anecdotally, while this clearly a positive development from an institutional ownership perspective we note that management also remains keen on securing/attracting some formal sell-side research coverage.)

In terms of the longer-term outlook, on which we remind investors that management has solid visibility (with ~80% of sales over next 5-years having already been award by its OEM customers and a historical win rate on new business of greater than 50%), we broadly concur with management’s contention that the core turbocharger business is likely to be larger in 2030 than it is today and that GTX could generate free cash approximating the company’s current market capitalization over the next five years.

Our base case fair value estimate for GTX remains ~$12 per share, reflecting an 8.5x multiple on our 2026E adjusted net income forecast of $257.5 million and a fully diluted share count of ~186 million.

 

Update – APi Group (APG) – July 1, 2025 

Close Coverage of APi Group (APG) with Shares Trading roughly In-Line with our Fair Value Estimate

For context, shares of Api Group (APG) appreciated ~55% (outperforming the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indexes by 49% and 58.5%, respectively) since our most recent initiation in October 2024.

That said, with shares trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate we prefer to maintain a disciplined and close coverage of APG.

As always, we will continue to monitor the shares for an opportunity to re-recommend if valuation shifts or more tangible steps toward potential strategic alternatives materialize. 

Radar Screen – July 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)*, Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – June 27, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE: Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – June 23, 2025

HOLN Completes the Spin-Off of AMRZ; Initially Rate Shares of SpinCo at BUY and the Post-Spin Parent at NEUTRAL

On Monday, Holcim AG (HOLN SW), a global building materials concern, completed the tax-free spin-off of Amrize (AMRZ). 

AMRZ will be included in the Swiss Market Index (SMI) and the Swiss Leader Index (SLI) on its first day of trading and intends to seek inclusion in the relevant U.S. equity indices, most reasonably, in our view, the S&P 500. To that end, management contends that the dual listing will not preclude its inclusion in the S&P 500 and that it meets other ancillary qualifying criteria, such as a domestic headquarters, although the concentration of trading volume remains to be seen.  Post-spin parent, HOLN, will remain in both the SMI and SLI indexes. 

AMRZ is being valued, based on our forecasts, at ~9.0x 2026E EBITDA, which is in-line with cement peers, such as Eagle Materials (EXP) and CRH plc (CRH) but a discount to aggregate peers, such as Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) and Vulcan Materials (VMC), which currently trade at ~14.5x, as well as its primary roofing peer, Carlisle Cos. (CSL), which trades at ~11.5x.  To that end, we apply a blended multiple of ~11.5x to our 2026E EBITDA forecast, based on a 14.0x multiple for the Aggregates business, a 9.0x multiple for Cement and 11x for Roofing, a modest discount to Carlisle Cos. (CSL), which yields a total segment value enterprise value of $41.85 billion or ~$66 per share. Given the implied 35% upside, we assign an initial rating of BUY. 

HOLN, which trades on the SIX Swiss Exchange, suggests that shares are trading at ~8.0x our 2026E EBITDA forecast compared with international-focused peers, such as Buzzi SpA (BUZ IM), Cie de Saint Gobain SA (SGO FP), CRH plc (CRH), and Heidelberg Materials AG (HEI GR), which currently trade, on average, at ~7.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA. Further, simply for reference the average forward M&A multiple within the broader/global Building Materials sector has been roughly 9.5x since 2015. For our part, applying a multiple of 7.5x to 2026E EBITDA, yields segment value of ~CHF 28.5 billion or ~CHF 51 per share.

 

COMPREHENSIVE REPORT: Fortive (FTV) – June 12, 2025

On September 4, 2024, Fortive Corporation (NYSE: FTV) announced its Board of Directors authorized the pursuit of a tax-free spin-off of its Precision Technologies (PT) business from its Intelligent Operating Solutions (IOS) and Advanced Healthcare Solutions (AHS) businesses.  The standalone Precision Technoligies business will adopt the corporate name of Ralliant Corporation and ultimately trade on the New York Stock Exchange Ticker (NYSE) under the ticker RAL.  The parent company will retain the Fortive Corp. moniker.  At least initially, the company targeted the transaction’s completion in 4Q 2025 but has accelerated its timeline with an expected completion after the market close on June 28, 2025 .  To that end, we attended the joint capital markets day held in NYC on June 10th and management has embarked on an equity roadshow in advance of the transaction’s completion.

 

Radar Screen – June 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), APi Group (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Masimo Corp. (MASI), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE)*, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – June 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – May 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – June 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – June 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566