The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports. If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.
HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):
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LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:
COMPREHENSIVE REPORT – U-Haul Holding Corp. (UHAL) – August 22, 2025
U-Haul Holding Co. (UHAL), formerly Amerco, operates three reportable segments: (1) Moving & Storage, which rents trucks, trailers, and towing equipment as well as owns/operates an expansive portfolio of self-storage space; (2) Property & Casualty Insurance, comprised primarily of Repwest Insurance, which provides insurance for U-Haul customers and equipment; and (3) Life Insurance, which serves the senior citizen market via its Oxford subsidiary. UHAL is the dominant player in the Do-It-Yourself (DIY) moving market, with durable competitive advantages in proximity, availability, and price. In our estimation, at ~7.5x F2027E EV/EBITDA, UHAL is undervalued relative to the sum value of its parts, particularly the growing, high-margin/low-incremental-capex Storage portion of its core M&S business. Based on our financial projections as well as peer and M&A valuations, values of $106.50 per share and ~$2 per share can be assigned to UHAL’s Moving & Storage and Insurance businesses. Accounting for projected net debt of ~$32 per share yields a base-case sum-of-the-parts value of roughly $76.50 per share. Potential catalysts include the monetization/re-valuation of assets, better than expected earnings growth, more granular financial disclosures, and/or incremental share-holder friendly measures, such as dividend increases, share repurchases and/or more investor engagement. Potential risks include execution, competition/pricing pressure, rising costs, and/or economic disruptions.
UPDATE – NPK International (NPKI) – August 6, 2025
NPKI reported solid 2Q 2025 results & modestly raised full-year guidance for 2nd time this year; ended 2Q 2025 with net cash despite repurchasing 3% of shares in 1H 2025; fair value estimate increased to $10 per share (from $9.50)
NPK International (NPKI) reported 2Q 2025 results with sales from continuing operations up ~2% to $68.2 million, driven by strength in demand for rentals of its core-composite matting products. Adj. EBITDA rose 5% and $18.8 million on 70 bps of margin expansion to 27.5% while EPS were $0.10.
The company ended 2Q 2025 with net cash of $16.7 million, including ~$26 million of cash and ~$9.3 million of debt. Notably, the company repurchased ~1% of the outstanding shares during the June-quarter. For context, NPKI has ~$92.5 million remaining on a $100 million buyback authorization.
Longer-term, the company remains bullish on the durability of demand within its utility/transmission and critical infrastructure verticals as well as its ability to continue expanding geographically as well as gain share.
As well, in the context of the Fluid Systems sale, the corporate name change and the recent GICS reclassification, we continue to think NPKI’s stock remains in the process of re-rating toward a valuation more in-line with specialty rental & services peers as opposed to a legacy oilfield services provider; to that end, the company is currently positioned as a pure-play provider of work access solutions focused on the global critical infrastructure complex, including the utility & energy transmission markets.
Our base case fair value for NPKI is modestly increased to $10 per share based on a 10.5x multiple on 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$79 million, while accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt/cash.
UPDATE – TriMas Corporation (TRS) – July 29, 2025
On July 29, TRS reported 2Q 2025 sales up ~14% to $274.8 million (compared with consensus of $251.3 million), as organic growth of ~8% and ~24% at the Packaging & Aerospace segments more than offset a 7%% decline at Specialty Products (including the Arrow Engine divestiture). Adj. EBITDA rose ~31% to $47.9 million (versus consensus of ~$40.77 million) while adj. EPS rose ~42% to $0.61 (compared with consensus of $0.47).
In terms of capital allocation, the company has repurchased 106,200 shares for ~$2.3 million in the first-six months of 2025 (at an implied purchase price of ~$21.65 per share). The company remains authorized to repurchase an additional ~$65.4 million worth of shares.
TRS increased its consolidated full-year 2025E guidance, which now calls for consolidated sales growth of 8%-10% (up from 4%-6%) and adj. EPS of $1.95-$2.00 (up from $1.70-$1.85 and compares with current consensus of $1.63).
On this morning’s conference call, newly appointed CEO (as of June 2025), Thomas Snyder, formerly of Silgan Holdings (NYSE: SLGN), indicated that the previously announced portfolio review remains on-going (although the immediate focus remains on driving operational improvements).
Our base case fair value estimate for TRS increases to $35.50 per share (from $32 per share), reflecting a blended multiple of ~9.5x on 2026E adj. EBITDA of ~$188 million, projected net debt of ~$338 million and a fully diluted share count of ~40.1 million.
GTX reported 2Q 2025 sales up 3% to $913 million as strength in gasoline & commercial vehicle verticals offset weakness in diesel and replacement products. Adj. EBITDA rose more than 2.5% to $154 million while adj. free cash flow (FCF) roughly doubled year-over-year to $121 million. GAAP net income improved more than 35% to $87 million.
The company increased its initial full-year 2025E outlook, which now calls for full-year 2025E sales of $3.4-$3.6 billion with GAAP net income and adjusted EBITDA of $233-$278 million and $590-$650 million respectively. Cash flow from operations is projected to be $370-$450 million, resulting in adj. free cash flow of $330-$410 million.
In terms of the longer-term outlook, on which we remind investors that management has solid visibility, we concur with management’s contention that the core turbocharger business is likely to be larger in 2030 than it is today and that GTX could generate free cash approximating the company’s current market capitalization over the next five years.
Our base case fair value estimate for GTX increases to $14 per share, reflecting an 8.5x multiple on our 2027E adjusted net income forecast and a fully diluted share count of ~179 million.
Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event
Companies discussed this month: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)*, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)
*New this month
Product Specialist
Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566
