PCS Research Group Voyant Advisors Chain Bridge Research Canyon River Advisors Horizon Kinetics
Menu
Home Our Team Sample Research Client Portal Contact Client Portal Login

The Weekly Wrap-Up – September 5, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE:  Western Digital Corp. (WDC)– September 5, 2025

Close Coverage/Withdraw Recommendation of WDC (formerly BUY), Effective as of Today’s Close, with Shares Trading Roughly In-Line with our FVE Following Steep Price Appreciation in Recent Months & Our Coverage Mandate Having been Eclipsed

Recall, Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ: WDC) completed the tax-free separation of Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) in late February 2025; since that time (amid our initial Buy rating), shares have appreciated ~77% (outperforming the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 by ~70% and ~69%, respectively).

That said, with the shares trading roughly in-line with our $88 fair value estimate and considering the time elapsed since the transaction has exceeded our coverage mandate we prefer to remain disciplined and drop coverage/withdraw our recommendation, effective as of today’s close.

 

UPDATE:  Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) – September 5, 2025

Close Coverage/Withdraw Recommendation of SNDK (formerly BUY), Effective as of Today’s Close, with Shares Trading Roughly In-Line with our FVE Following Sharp Price Appreciation in Recent Months/Weeks & the Timeline of our Coverage Mandate Having been Eclipsed

Since our recommendation, shares have appreciated roughly 100% (outperforming the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 by ~83.5% and ~75.5%, respectively) amid a mitigation of tariff concerns/seemingly favorable changes to export rules, solid 3Q & 4Q F2025 results as well as increased investor confidence in the likelihood/sustainability of a favorable supply/demand environment within the Flash industry,.

In that context, with shares trading roughly in-line with our $60 per share fair value estimate (FVE), leaving us hesitant to recommend new capital, as well as the passage of our coverage mandate, in terms of the time elapsed since the transaction, we close coverage/withdraw our recommendation of SNDK, effective as of today’s close.

 

ALERT:  The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) – September 2, 2025

Kraft Heinz (KHC) to Separate, Tax-Free, Into Two Publicly Traded Companies in 2H 2026

On September 2, 2025, before the market open, The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC), a global packaged food company, announced plans to separate into two, independent, publicly traded companies, currently named “Global Taste Elevation Co.” & “North American Grocery Co.” as placeholders, in a tax-free spin-off transaction that is expected to be completed in 2H 2026.

In terms of valuation, Kraft Heinz (KHC) could be compared with, among others, The Campbell Soup Co. (NASDAQ: CPB), Conagra Brands (NYSE: CAG), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL), and The J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM), which, on average trade at 10x 2026E EV/EBITDA (in a range of ~8x-13x). Applying a slightly discounted blended multiple of ~9.0x (i.e., 9.5x & 8.5x based on margin disparities) to projected 2026E adj. EBITDA implies total segment value of ~$55 billion. Accounting for projected net debt yields a total value of $35.5 billion or ~$30 per share (based on a diluted share count of 1,185 million).

 

ALERT: Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) – August 25, 2025

KDP to Acquire JDE Peet’s & Subsquently Split into Two U.S. Listed Companies in Late-2026

On August 25, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ: KDP) agreed to purchase JDE Peet’s N.V. (JDEP NA) in cash for €31.85 per share, representing an equity value of €15.7 billion and a ~33% premium to JDEP’s 90-day volume weighted average price (VWAP).  The purchase price, which will be unaffected by JDEP’s previously declared dividend of €0.36 per share, represents a 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple of ~12.9x (or a 10.5x multiple post ~$400 million of synergies expected to be realized over 3-years).  The transaction, which has the committed support of JAB Holdings who controls ~69% of the JDEP, is expected to close in 1H 2026.

As soon as feasible following the merger (i.e., late-2026), the combined company intends to separate into two independent, publicly traded companies via a tax-free spin-off (subject to customary conditions): 1) Beverage Co., which will operate well-known brands, such as Dr Pepper, A&W, Canada Dry, 7-Up, Snapple, Mott’s and Penafiel; and 2) Global Coffee Co., which will combine KDP’s single-serve coffee brands, Keurig & Green Mountain, which is a category leader in North America, with JDE Peets’s long-established portfolio of brands, particularly in Europe, including Peet’s, L’OR, and Jacobs.  

Applying a blended multiple of ~13.0x EV/EBITDA to 2026E EBITDA implies values of ~$47 billion and nearly $40.5 billion, respectively. Accounting for projected net debt yields a preliminary, base case, sum-of-the-parts valuation of ~$49 billion or ~$36 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~1.36 billion).

 

Radar Screen – September 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month: California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)*, Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – September 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – August 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – August 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – August 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – August 28, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

 

ALERT: Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KPG) – August 25, 2025

KDP to Acquire JDE Peet’s & Subsquently Split into Two U.S. Listed Companies in Late-2026     

On August 25, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP), a North American beverage company, agreed to purchase JDE Peet’s N.V. (JDEP NA) in cash for €31.85 per share, representing an equity value of €15.7 billion and a ~33% premium to JDEP’s 90-day volume weighted average price (VWAP).  The purchase price, which will be unaffected by JDEP’s previously declared dividend of €0.36 per share, represents a 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple of ~12.9x.  The transaction, which has the committed support of JAB Holdings who controls ~69% of the JDEP, is expected to close in 1H 2026.

As soon as practically feasible following the merger (i.e., late-2026), the combined company intends to separate into two independent, publicly traded companies via a tax-free spin-off: 1) Beverage Co., which will operate well-known brands, such as Dr Pepper, A&W, Canada Dry, 7-Up, Snapple, Mott’s and Penafiel; and 2) Global Coffee Co., which will combine KDP’s single-serve coffee brands, Keurig & Green Mountain, which is a category leader in North America, with JDE Peets’s long-established portfolio of brands, particularly in Europe, including Peet’s, L’OR, and Jacobs.  The standalone Beverage business, which operates in the ~$300 billion global beverage industry and will be helmed by current KDP CEO Tim Cofer, is expected to generate sales of ~$11 billion with adj. EBITDA of ~$3.3 billion and post mid-single digit net sales growth along with adj. EPS growth in the high -single digits while the Global Coffee Co., which is expected to be the top-player in the ~$400 billion global coffee industry and will be led by KDP’s current CFO Sudhanshu Priyadarshi, is projected to generate ~$16 billion in June-ending TTM sales and ~$3.1 billion of pre-synergy adj. EBITDA. 

In terms of valuation, the Beverage & the Coffee Cos., compete with a range of companies, including Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), J.M. Smucker (SJM), Kraft Heinz (KHC), and Nestle (NESN SW), which trade at ~14x 2026E EV/EBITDA , while ancillary peers in the sector, excluding predominantly alcohol-focused concerns, could include Campbell’s Soup, Danone SA, Hershey, Kellanova (K), which is the process of being purchased by privately-held Mars, Inc. for ~16.4x TTM adj. EBITDA, McCormick & Co. (MKC) and Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST), which trade at ~14.5x.    

Applying a blended multiple of ~13.0x EV/EBITDA to 2026E EBITDA implies values of ~$47 billion and nearly $40.5 billion, respectively. Accounting for projected net debt yields a preliminary, base case, sum-of-the-parts valuation of ~$49 billion or ~$36 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~1.36 billion).

 

 

UPDATE: Ralliant Corp. (RAL) – August 12, 2025

RAL Reports 2Q 2025 Results; Sets 3Q 2025 Guidance & Declares a $0.05 Quarterly Dividend; Lower FVE to $54 (from $62) & Maintain NEUTRAL Despite Early Signs of a Potential Bottom Emerging at the T&M Segment

Ralliant Corp. (RAL), which completed its tax-free separation from Fortive Corp. (FTV) in late-June 2025, reported 2Q 2025 results, its first as a standalone public-company, showing consolidated sales down ~6% to $503 million, in-line with management’s previous commentary indicating 2Q 2025E sales would be down in “mid-single digits”, with sequential sales growth of ~4%. Adjusted EBITDA, EPS and FCF of $99 million, $0.67 and $74 million, respectively. 

In terms of the outlook, the company articulated 3Q 2025E guidance calling for consolidated quarterly sales of $513-$527 million, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18%-20% and adj. EPS of $0.54-$0.60.

Management commentary suggests that 2Q 2025 could represent the nadir at T&M from both a top-line and margin perspective although we would note that while management remains “cautiously optimistic” it stressed on this morning’s conference call that the environment remains volatile. 

Additionally, in early August 2025, RAL announced that its Board had approved a $0.05 per share quarterly cash dividend payable on September 23rd (for shareholders of record on September 8th). 

Our fair value estimate (FVE) for post-spin Ralliant Corp. (RAL) is revised to $54 per share (from $62 per share) reflecting a ~15.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple (or ~20.5x 2026E EPS) and accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt.

 

Radar Screen – August 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)*, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – August 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – August 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – August 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – August 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – August 28, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

UPDATE – U-Haul Holding Corp. (UHAL) – August 27, 2025

Per an internal survey, UHAL’s core equipment rental business continues to dominate the 20’-22’ one-way truck market and remains the increasingly clear leader in the more competitive 10’-16’ markets

With the back-to-school season upon us, we thought it might be an interesting exercise to re-evaluate a snapshot of the do-it-yourself (DIY) moving market’s competitive landscape. To that end, we simulated 20 potential moving transactions of theoretical students returning to college/university.

Objectively, we think the results broadly support our contention that UHAL’s core truck rental offering has durable competitive advantages in what we discern are the main factors of differentiation, namely the availability of equipment, the proximity of rental locations, and price.

From a comparative perspective, we conducted an identical survey in August 2018 where the results indicated U-Haul was the “clear” or “likely” choice in the 20’-22’ market for 90%-95% of the transactions. In the 10’-16’ market, we discerned U-Haul was the “clear” or “likely” choice in 40%-45% of the transactions and a “reasonable” choice in ~60% of the transactions, which, all told, suggests to us that while the competitive environment has not tectonically shifted U-Haul has seemingly extended its lead against the competition.

All told, it remains our view at ~7.5x F2027E EV/EBITDA UHAL is undervalued relative to the sum value of its parts, which includes the leading/dominant equipment rental business as well as a high-margin/low-incremental-capex self-storage business.  Our fair value estimate remains $76.50 per share.

 

 

COMPREHENSIVE REPORT – U-Haul Holding Corp. (UHAL) – August 22, 2025

U-Haul Holding Co. (UHAL), formerly Amerco, operates three reportable segments: (1) Moving & Storage, which rents trucks, trailers, and towing equipment as well as owns/operates an expansive portfolio of self-storage space; (2) Property & Casualty Insurance, comprised primarily of Repwest Insurance, which provides insurance for U-Haul customers and equipment; and (3) Life Insurance, which serves the senior citizen market via its Oxford subsidiary. UHAL is the dominant player in the Do-It-Yourself (DIY) moving market, with durable competitive advantages in proximity, availability, and price. In our estimation, at ~7.5x F2027E EV/EBITDA, UHAL is undervalued relative to the sum value of its parts, particularly the growing, high-margin/low-incremental-capex Storage portion of its core M&S business. Based on our financial projections as well as peer and M&A valuations, values of $106.50 per share and ~$2 per share can be assigned to UHAL’s Moving & Storage and Insurance businesses. Accounting for projected net debt of ~$32 per share yields a base-case sum-of-the-parts value of roughly $76.50 per share. Potential catalysts include the monetization/re-valuation of assets, better than expected earnings growth, more granular financial disclosures, and/or incremental share-holder friendly measures, such as dividend increases, share repurchases and/or more investor engagement. Potential risks include execution, competition/pricing pressure, rising costs, and/or economic disruptions.

 

Radar Screen – August 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)*, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – August 22, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

COMPREHENSIVE REPORT – U-Haul Holding Corp. (UHAL) – August 22, 2025

U-Haul Holding Co. (UHAL), formerly Amerco, operates three reportable segments: (1) Moving & Storage, which rents trucks, trailers, and towing equipment as well as owns/operates an expansive portfolio of self-storage space; (2) Property & Casualty Insurance, comprised primarily of Repwest Insurance, which provides insurance for U-Haul customers and equipment; and (3) Life Insurance, which serves the senior citizen market via its Oxford subsidiary. UHAL is the dominant player in the Do-It-Yourself (DIY) moving market, with durable competitive advantages in proximity, availability, and price. In our estimation, at ~7.5x F2027E EV/EBITDA, UHAL is undervalued relative to the sum value of its parts, particularly the growing, high-margin/low-incremental-capex Storage portion of its core M&S business. Based on our financial projections as well as peer and M&A valuations, values of $106.50 per share and ~$2 per share can be assigned to UHAL’s Moving & Storage and Insurance businesses. Accounting for projected net debt of ~$32 per share yields a base-case sum-of-the-parts value of roughly $76.50 per share. Potential catalysts include the monetization/re-valuation of assets, better than expected earnings growth, more granular financial disclosures, and/or incremental share-holder friendly measures, such as dividend increases, share repurchases and/or more investor engagement. Potential risks include execution, competition/pricing pressure, rising costs, and/or economic disruptions.

 

UPDATE – NPK International (NPKI) – August 6, 2025

NPKI reported solid 2Q 2025 results & modestly raised full-year guidance for 2nd time this year; ended 2Q 2025 with net cash despite repurchasing 3% of shares in 1H 2025; fair value estimate increased to $10 per share (from $9.50)

NPK International (NPKI) reported 2Q 2025 results with sales from continuing operations up ~2% to $68.2 million, driven by strength in demand for rentals of its core-composite matting products.  Adj. EBITDA rose 5% and $18.8 million on 70 bps of margin expansion to 27.5% while EPS were $0.10.

The company ended 2Q 2025 with net cash of $16.7 million, including ~$26 million of cash and ~$9.3 million of debt.  Notably, the company repurchased ~1% of the outstanding shares during the June-quarter.   For context, NPKI has ~$92.5 million remaining on a $100 million buyback authorization.

Longer-term, the company remains bullish on the durability of demand within its utility/transmission and critical infrastructure verticals as well as its ability to continue expanding geographically as well as gain share.

As well, in the context of the Fluid Systems sale, the corporate name change and the recent GICS reclassification, we continue to think NPKI’s stock remains in the process of re-rating toward a valuation more in-line with specialty rental & services peers as opposed to a legacy oilfield services provider; to that end, the company is currently positioned as a pure-play provider of work access solutions focused on the global critical infrastructure complex, including the utility & energy transmission markets.  

Our base case fair value for NPKI is modestly increased to $10 per share based on a 10.5x multiple on 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$79 million, while accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt/cash.

 

UPDATE – TriMas Corporation (TRS) – July 29, 2025

On July 29, TRS reported 2Q 2025 sales up ~14% to $274.8 million (compared with consensus of $251.3 million), as organic growth of ~8% and ~24% at the Packaging & Aerospace segments more than offset a 7%% decline at Specialty Products (including the Arrow Engine divestiture). Adj. EBITDA rose ~31% to $47.9 million (versus consensus of ~$40.77 million) while adj. EPS rose ~42% to $0.61 (compared with consensus of $0.47).

In terms of capital allocation, the company has repurchased 106,200 shares for ~$2.3 million in the first-six months of 2025 (at an implied purchase price of ~$21.65 per share). The company remains authorized to repurchase an additional ~$65.4 million worth of shares.

TRS increased its consolidated full-year 2025E guidance, which now calls for consolidated sales growth of 8%-10% (up from 4%-6%) and adj. EPS of $1.95-$2.00 (up from $1.70-$1.85 and compares with current consensus of $1.63).

On this morning’s conference call, newly appointed CEO (as of June 2025), Thomas Snyder, formerly of Silgan Holdings (NYSE: SLGN), indicated that the previously announced portfolio review remains on-going (although the immediate focus remains on driving operational improvements).

Our base case fair value estimate for TRS increases to $35.50 per share (from $32 per share), reflecting a blended multiple of ~9.5x on 2026E adj. EBITDA of ~$188 million, projected net debt of ~$338 million and a fully diluted share count of ~40.1 million.

 

UPDATE – Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) – July 24, 2025

GTX reported 2Q 2025 sales up 3% to $913 million as strength in gasoline & commercial vehicle verticals offset weakness in diesel and replacement products. Adj. EBITDA rose more than 2.5% to $154 million while adj. free cash flow (FCF) roughly doubled year-over-year to $121 million. GAAP net income improved more than 35% to $87 million.

The company increased its initial full-year 2025E outlook, which now calls for full-year 2025E sales of $3.4-$3.6 billion with GAAP net income and adjusted EBITDA of $233-$278 million and $590-$650 million respectively. Cash flow from operations is projected to be $370-$450 million, resulting in adj. free cash flow of $330-$410 million. 

In terms of the longer-term outlook, on which we remind investors that management has solid visibility, we concur with management’s contention that the core turbocharger business is likely to be larger in 2030 than it is today and that GTX could generate free cash approximating the company’s current market capitalization over the next five years.

Our base case fair value estimate for GTX increases to $14 per share, reflecting an 8.5x multiple on our 2027E adjusted net income forecast and a fully diluted share count of ~179 million.

 

Radar Screen – August 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)*, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – August 22, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE: Ralliant Corp. (RAL) – August 12, 2025

RAL Reports 2Q 2025 Results; Sets 3Q 2025 Guidance & Declares a $0.05 Quarterly Dividend; Lower FVE to $54 (from $62) & Maintain NEUTRAL Despite Early Signs of a Potential Bottom Emerging at the T&M Segment

Ralliant Corp. (RAL), which completed its tax-free separation from Fortive Corp. (FTV) in late-June 2025, reported 2Q 2025 results, its first as a standalone public-company, showing consolidated sales down ~6% to $503 million, in-line with management’s previous commentary indicating 2Q 2025E sales would be down in “mid-single digits”, with sequential sales growth of ~4%. Adjusted EBITDA, EPS and FCF of $99 million, $0.67 and $74 million, respectively. 

In terms of the outlook, the company articulated 3Q 2025E guidance calling for consolidated quarterly sales of $513-$527 million, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18%-20% and adj. EPS of $0.54-$0.60.

Management commentary suggests that 2Q 2025 could represent the nadir at T&M from both a top-line and margin perspective although we would note that while management remains “cautiously optimistic” it stressed on this morning’s conference call that the environment remains volatile. 

Additionally, in early August 2025, RAL announced that its Board had approved a $0.05 per share quarterly cash dividend payable on September 23rd (for shareholders of record on September 8th). 

Our fair value estimate (FVE) for post-spin Ralliant Corp. (RAL) is revised to $54 per share (from $62 per share) reflecting a ~15.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple (or ~20.5x 2026E EPS) and accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt.

 

UPDATE: Western Digital Corp. (WDC) – July 31, 2025

On July 30, Western Digital (WDC), which spun off Sandisk (SNDK) in February 2025, reported 4Q F2025 results with sales up 30% year-over-year to $2.605 billion (versus consensus of $2.457 billion) and adjusted EPS of $1.66 (versus consensus of $1.47), up ~22%. 

The company benefited from strong demand for its nearline HDD products, in part driven by the rise of AI models and their favorable impact on the demand for unstructured data storage 

During the quarter, the company authorized $2.0 billion of share repurchases, of which the company exercised $149 million, as well as initiated a $0.10 quarterly dividend.

The company provided its 1Q 2026E outlook which calls for a ~22% increase in sales to $2.7 billion and adj. EPS of ~$1.54 (versus prior consensus of $2.545 billion and $1.40, respectively).  

Our FV increases to $77 per share based on a 12.5x multiple on F2026E adj. EPS of ~$6.10. 

 

ALERT: Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI) – July 30, 2025

On July 30, 2025, Resideo Technologies (REZI), a global provider of smart home products & systems that was itself spun-off from Honeywell (HON) in 2018, announced its intention to separate its ADI Global Distribution (ADI) business from its Products & Solutions (P&S) in 2H 2026

ADI is a global wholesale distributor of low-voltage products, such as security and audio-visual (AV) solutions, and P&S is a building products manufacturer focused on residential controls and sensing solutions. In the trailing twelve months ended March 2025, ADI revenue was $4.5 billion and P&S was $2.6 billion.

Along with today’s announcement, REZI indicated that it expects to report 2Q 2025 results above the high-end of its previous outlook, which called for consolidated sales of $1.805-$1.855 billion with adjusted EBITDA and EPS of $175-$195 million and $0.51-$0.61, respectively. For the full-year 2025E, REZI’s targets sales of $7.285-$7.485 billion along with adj. EBITDA and EPS of $725-$805 million and $2.23-$2.47, respectively (based on a diluted share count of ~150 million).

Based on a blended peer multiple of ~9.5x 2026E adj. EBITDA and projected net debt, including an anticipated 3Q payment to HON (relating to the elimination of future monetary obligations), yields a preliminary, sum-of-the-parts fair value of ~$4.5 billion or ~$30 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~150 million), 17% above the current share price.

Radar Screen – August 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)*, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – August 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – August 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – August 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – August 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – August 15, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE: Ralliant Corp. (RAL) – August 12, 2025

RAL Reports 2Q 2025 Results; Sets 3Q 2025 Guidance & Declares a $0.05 Quarterly Dividend; Lower FVE to $54 (from $62) & Maintain NEUTRAL Despite Early Signs of a Potential Bottom Emerging at the T&M Segment

Ralliant Corp. (RAL), which completed its tax-free separation from Fortive Corp. (FTV) in late-June 2025, reported 2Q 2025 results, its first as a standalone public-company, showing consolidated sales down ~6% to $503 million, in-line with management’s previous commentary indicating 2Q 2025E sales would be down in “mid-single digits”, with sequential sales growth of ~4%. Adjusted EBITDA, EPS and FCF of $99 million, $0.67 and $74 million, respectively. 

In terms of the outlook, the company articulated 3Q 2025E guidance calling for consolidated quarterly sales of $513-$527 million, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18%-20% and adj. EPS of $0.54-$0.60.

Management commentary suggests that 2Q 2025 could represent the nadir at T&M from both a top-line and margin perspective although we would note that while management remains “cautiously optimistic” it stressed on this morning’s conference call that the environment remains volatile. 

Additionally, in early August 2025, RAL announced that its Board had approved a $0.05 per share quarterly cash dividend payable on September 23rd (for shareholders of record on September 8th). 

Our fair value estimate (FVE) for post-spin Ralliant Corp. (RAL) is revised to $54 per share (from $62 per share) reflecting a ~15.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple (or ~20.5x 2026E EPS) and accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt.

 

UPDATE: Western Digital Corp. (WDC) – July 31, 2025

On July 30, Western Digital (WDC), which spun off Sandisk (SNDK) in February 2025, reported 4Q F2025 results with sales up 30% year-over-year to $2.605 billion (versus consensus of $2.457 billion) and adjusted EPS of $1.66 (versus consensus of $1.47), up ~22%. 

The company benefited from strong demand for its nearline HDD products, in part driven by the rise of AI models and their favorable impact on the demand for unstructured data storage 

During the quarter, the company authorized $2.0 billion of share repurchases, of which the company exercised $149 million, as well as initiated a $0.10 quarterly dividend.

The company provided its 1Q 2026E outlook which calls for a ~22% increase in sales to $2.7 billion and adj. EPS of ~$1.54 (versus prior consensus of $2.545 billion and $1.40, respectively).  

Our FV increases to $77 per share based on a 12.5x multiple on F2026E adj. EPS of ~$6.10. 

 

ALERT: Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI) – July 30, 2025

On July 30, 2025, Resideo Technologies (REZI), a global provider of smart home products & systems that was itself spun-off from Honeywell (HON) in 2018, announced its intention to separate its ADI Global Distribution (ADI) business from its Products & Solutions (P&S) in 2H 2026

ADI is a global wholesale distributor of low-voltage products, such as security and audio-visual (AV) solutions, and P&S is a building products manufacturer focused on residential controls and sensing solutions. In the trailing twelve months ended March 2025, ADI revenue was $4.5 billion and P&S was $2.6 billion.

Along with today’s announcement, REZI indicated that it expects to report 2Q 2025 results above the high-end of its previous outlook, which called for consolidated sales of $1.805-$1.855 billion with adjusted EBITDA and EPS of $175-$195 million and $0.51-$0.61, respectively. For the full-year 2025E, REZI’s targets sales of $7.285-$7.485 billion along with adj. EBITDA and EPS of $725-$805 million and $2.23-$2.47, respectively (based on a diluted share count of ~150 million).

Based on a blended peer multiple of ~9.5x 2026E adj. EBITDA and projected net debt, including an anticipated 3Q payment to HON (relating to the elimination of future monetary obligations), yields a preliminary, sum-of-the-parts fair value of ~$4.5 billion or ~$30 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~150 million), 17% above the current share price.

Radar Screen – August 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)*, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – August 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – August 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – June 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – August 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – August 15, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

UPDATE – NPK International (NPKI) – August 6, 2025

NPKI reported solid 2Q 2025 results & modestly raised full-year guidance for 2nd time this year; ended 2Q 2025 with net cash despite repurchasing 3% of shares in 1H 2025; fair value estimate increased to $10 per share (from $9.50)

NPK International (NPKI) reported 2Q 2025 results with sales from continuing operations up ~2% to $68.2 million, driven by strength in demand for rentals of its core-composite matting products.  Adj. EBITDA rose 5% and $18.8 million on 70 bps of margin expansion to 27.5% while EPS were $0.10.

The company ended 2Q 2025 with net cash of $16.7 million, including ~$26 million of cash and ~$9.3 million of debt.  Notably, the company repurchased ~1% of the outstanding shares during the June-quarter.   For context, NPKI has ~$92.5 million remaining on a $100 million buyback authorization.

Longer-term, the company remains bullish on the durability of demand within its utility/transmission and critical infrastructure verticals as well as its ability to continue expanding geographically as well as gain share.

As well, in the context of the Fluid Systems sale, the corporate name change and the recent GICS reclassification, we continue to think NPKI’s stock remains in the process of re-rating toward a valuation more in-line with specialty rental & services peers as opposed to a legacy oilfield services provider; to that end, the company is currently positioned as a pure-play provider of work access solutions focused on the global critical infrastructure complex, including the utility & energy transmission markets.  

Our base case fair value for NPKI is modestly increased to $10 per share based on a 10.5x multiple on 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$79 million, while accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt/cash.

 

UPDATE – TriMas Corporation (TRS) – July 29, 2025

On July 29, TRS reported 2Q 2025 sales up ~14% to $274.8 million (compared with consensus of $251.3 million), as organic growth of ~8% and ~24% at the Packaging & Aerospace segments more than offset a 7%% decline at Specialty Products (including the Arrow Engine divestiture). Adj. EBITDA rose ~31% to $47.9 million (versus consensus of ~$40.77 million) while adj. EPS rose ~42% to $0.61 (compared with consensus of $0.47).

In terms of capital allocation, the company has repurchased 106,200 shares for ~$2.3 million in the first-six months of 2025 (at an implied purchase price of ~$21.65 per share). The company remains authorized to repurchase an additional ~$65.4 million worth of shares.

TRS increased its consolidated full-year 2025E guidance, which now calls for consolidated sales growth of 8%-10% (up from 4%-6%) and adj. EPS of $1.95-$2.00 (up from $1.70-$1.85 and compares with current consensus of $1.63).

On this morning’s conference call, newly appointed CEO (as of June 2025), Thomas Snyder, formerly of Silgan Holdings (NYSE: SLGN), indicated that the previously announced portfolio review remains on-going (although the immediate focus remains on driving operational improvements).

Our base case fair value estimate for TRS increases to $35.50 per share (from $32 per share), reflecting a blended multiple of ~9.5x on 2026E adj. EBITDA of ~$188 million, projected net debt of ~$338 million and a fully diluted share count of ~40.1 million.

 

UPDATE – Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) – July 24, 2025

GTX reported 2Q 2025 sales up 3% to $913 million as strength in gasoline & commercial vehicle verticals offset weakness in diesel and replacement products. Adj. EBITDA rose more than 2.5% to $154 million while adj. free cash flow (FCF) roughly doubled year-over-year to $121 million. GAAP net income improved more than 35% to $87 million.

The company increased its initial full-year 2025E outlook, which now calls for full-year 2025E sales of $3.4-$3.6 billion with GAAP net income and adjusted EBITDA of $233-$278 million and $590-$650 million respectively. Cash flow from operations is projected to be $370-$450 million, resulting in adj. free cash flow of $330-$410 million. 

In terms of the longer-term outlook, on which we remind investors that management has solid visibility, we concur with management’s contention that the core turbocharger business is likely to be larger in 2030 than it is today and that GTX could generate free cash approximating the company’s current market capitalization over the next five years.

Our base case fair value estimate for GTX increases to $14 per share, reflecting an 8.5x multiple on our 2027E adjusted net income forecast and a fully diluted share count of ~179 million.

 

Radar Screen – August 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)*, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – August 8, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides a list of upcoming spin-offs and summaries of recent publications.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.

UPCOMING U.S. SPIN-OFFS AND EXPECTED COMPLETION DATES:

2025

2026

RECENT PUBLICATIONS:

UPDATE: Western Digital Corp. (WDC) – July 31, 2025

  • On July 30, Western Digital (WDC), which spun off Sandisk (SNDK) in February 2025, reported 4Q F2025 results with sales up 30% year-over-year to $2.605 billion (versus consensus of $2.457 billion) and adjusted EPS of $1.66 (versus consensus of $1.47), up ~22%. 
  • The company benefited from strong demand for its nearline HDD products, in part driven by the rise of AI models and their favorable impact on the demand for unstructured data storage 
  • During the quarter, the company authorized $2.0 billion of share repurchases, of which the company exercised $149 million, as well as initiated a $0.10 quarterly dividend.
  • The company provided its 1Q 2026E outlook which calls for a ~22% increase in sales to $2.7 billion and adj. EPS of ~$1.54 (versus prior consensus of $2.545 billion and $1.40, respectively).  
  • Our FV increases to $77 per share based on a 12.5x multiple on F2026E adj. EPS of ~$6.10. 

 

ALERT: Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI) – July 30, 2025

  • On July 30, 2025, Resideo Technologies (REZI), a global provider of smart home products & systems that was itself spun-off from Honeywell (HON) in 2018, announced its intention to separate its ADI Global Distribution (ADI) business from its Products & Solutions (P&S) in 2H 2026
  • ADI is a global wholesale distributor of low-voltage products, such as security and audio-visual (AV) solutions, and P&S is a building products manufacturer focused on residential controls and sensing solutions. In the trailing twelve months ended March 2025, ADI revenue was $4.5 billion and P&S was $2.6 billion.
  • Along with today’s announcement, REZI indicated that it expects to report 2Q 2025 results above the high-end of its previous outlook, which called for consolidated sales of $1.805-$1.855 billion with adjusted EBITDA and EPS of $175-$195 million and $0.51-$0.61, respectively. For the full-year 2025E, REZI’s targets sales of $7.285-$7.485 billion along with adj. EBITDA and EPS of $725-$805 million and $2.23-$2.47, respectively (based on a diluted share count of ~150 million).
  • Based on a blended peer multiple of ~9.5x 2026E adj. EBITDA and projected net debt, including an anticipated 3Q payment to HON (relating to the elimination of future monetary obligations), yields a preliminary, sum-of-the-parts fair value of ~$4.5 billion or ~$30 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~150 million), 17% above the current share price.

Radar Screen – August 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)*, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*added this month

Spin-Off Report Calendar – August 2025

Published monthly, The Spin-Off Calendar provides one-page summaries of every spin-off under coverage from the announcement date, followed by the filing of the Form 10 and continuing 60 days post completion.

Spin-Off Report Compendium – May 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations.

European Spin-Off Compendium – June 2025

Murray Stahl’s commentary on various investing themes and single stock recommendations in Europe. 

Bits & Pieces – July 2025

Covers mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities.

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – August 8, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

UPDATE – NPK International (NPKI) – August 6, 2025

NPKI reported solid 2Q 2025 results & modestly raised full-year guidance for 2nd time this year; ended 2Q 2025 with net cash despite repurchasing 3% of shares in 1H 2025; fair value estimate increased to $10 per share (from $9.50)

NPK International (NPKI) reported 2Q 2025 results with sales from continuing operations up ~2% to $68.2 million, driven by strength in demand for rentals of its core-composite matting products.  Adj. EBITDA rose 5% and $18.8 million on 70 bps of margin expansion to 27.5% while EPS were $0.10.

The company ended 2Q 2025 with net cash of $16.7 million, including ~$26 million of cash and ~$9.3 million of debt.  Notably, the company repurchased ~1% of the outstanding shares during the June-quarter.   For context, NPKI has ~$92.5 million remaining on a $100 million buyback authorization.

Longer-term, the company remains bullish on the durability of demand within its utility/transmission and critical infrastructure verticals as well as its ability to continue expanding geographically as well as gain share.

As well, in the context of the Fluid Systems sale, the corporate name change and the recent GICS reclassification, we continue to think NPKI’s stock remains in the process of re-rating toward a valuation more in-line with specialty rental & services peers as opposed to a legacy oilfield services provider; to that end, the company is currently positioned as a pure-play provider of work access solutions focused on the global critical infrastructure complex, including the utility & energy transmission markets.  

Our base case fair value for NPKI is modestly increased to $10 per share based on a 10.5x multiple on 2026E adjusted EBITDA of ~$79 million, while accounting for corporate costs and projected net debt/cash.

 

UPDATE – TriMas Corporation (TRS) – July 29, 2025

On July 29, TRS reported 2Q 2025 sales up ~14% to $274.8 million (compared with consensus of $251.3 million), as organic growth of ~8% and ~24% at the Packaging & Aerospace segments more than offset a 7%% decline at Specialty Products (including the Arrow Engine divestiture). Adj. EBITDA rose ~31% to $47.9 million (versus consensus of ~$40.77 million) while adj. EPS rose ~42% to $0.61 (compared with consensus of $0.47).

In terms of capital allocation, the company has repurchased 106,200 shares for ~$2.3 million in the first-six months of 2025 (at an implied purchase price of ~$21.65 per share). The company remains authorized to repurchase an additional ~$65.4 million worth of shares.

TRS increased its consolidated full-year 2025E guidance, which now calls for consolidated sales growth of 8%-10% (up from 4%-6%) and adj. EPS of $1.95-$2.00 (up from $1.70-$1.85 and compares with current consensus of $1.63).

On this morning’s conference call, newly appointed CEO (as of June 2025), Thomas Snyder, formerly of Silgan Holdings (NYSE: SLGN), indicated that the previously announced portfolio review remains on-going (although the immediate focus remains on driving operational improvements).

Our base case fair value estimate for TRS increases to $35.50 per share (from $32 per share), reflecting a blended multiple of ~9.5x on 2026E adj. EBITDA of ~$188 million, projected net debt of ~$338 million and a fully diluted share count of ~40.1 million.

 

UPDATE – Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) – July 24, 2025

GTX reported 2Q 2025 sales up 3% to $913 million as strength in gasoline & commercial vehicle verticals offset weakness in diesel and replacement products. Adj. EBITDA rose more than 2.5% to $154 million while adj. free cash flow (FCF) roughly doubled year-over-year to $121 million. GAAP net income improved more than 35% to $87 million.

The company increased its initial full-year 2025E outlook, which now calls for full-year 2025E sales of $3.4-$3.6 billion with GAAP net income and adjusted EBITDA of $233-$278 million and $590-$650 million respectively. Cash flow from operations is projected to be $370-$450 million, resulting in adj. free cash flow of $330-$410 million. 

In terms of the longer-term outlook, on which we remind investors that management has solid visibility, we concur with management’s contention that the core turbocharger business is likely to be larger in 2030 than it is today and that GTX could generate free cash approximating the company’s current market capitalization over the next five years.

Our base case fair value estimate for GTX increases to $14 per share, reflecting an 8.5x multiple on our 2027E adjusted net income forecast and a fully diluted share count of ~179 million.

 

Radar Screen – August 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)*, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566

The Weekly Wrap-Up – August 1, 2025

The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports.  If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas. 

HIGH-CONVICTION RECOMMENDATIONS (LONG):

RECENT INITIATIONS:

LATEST PUBLICATIONS & UPDATES:

UPDATE – TriMas Corporation (TRS) – July 29, 2025

  • On July 29, TRS reported 2Q 2025 sales up ~14% to $274.8 million (compared with consensus of $251.3 million), as organic growth of ~8% and ~24% at the Packaging & Aerospace segments more than offset a 7%% decline at Specialty Products (including the Arrow Engine divestiture). Adj. EBITDA rose ~31% to $47.9 million (versus consensus of ~$40.77 million) while adj. EPS rose ~42% to $0.61 (compared with consensus of $0.47).
  • In terms of capital allocation, the company has repurchased 106,200 shares for ~$2.3 million in the first-six months of 2025 (at an implied purchase price of ~$21.65 per share). The company remains authorized to repurchase an additional ~$65.4 million worth of shares.
  • TRS increased its consolidated full-year 2025E guidance, which now calls for consolidated sales growth of 8%-10% (up from 4%-6%) and adj. EPS of $1.95-$2.00 (up from $1.70-$1.85 and compares with current consensus of $1.63).
  • On this morning’s conference call, newly appointed CEO (as of June 2025), Thomas Snyder, formerly of Silgan Holdings (NYSE: SLGN), indicated that the previously announced portfolio review remains on-going (although the immediate focus remains on driving operational improvements).
  • Our base case fair value estimate for TRS increases to $35.50 per share (from $32 per share), reflecting a blended multiple of ~9.5x on 2026E adj. EBITDA of ~$188 million, projected net debt of ~$338 million and a fully diluted share count of ~40.1 million.

 

UPDATE – Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) – July 24, 2025

  • GTX reported 2Q 2025 sales up 3% to $913 million as strength in gasoline & commercial vehicle verticals offset weakness in diesel and replacement products. Adj. EBITDA rose more than 2.5% to $154 million while adj. free cash flow (FCF) roughly doubled year-over-year to $121 million. GAAP net income improved more than 35% to $87 million.
  • The company increased its initial full-year 2025E outlook, which now calls for full-year 2025E sales of $3.4-$3.6 billion with GAAP net income and adjusted EBITDA of $233-$278 million and $590-$650 million respectively. Cash flow from operations is projected to be $370-$450 million, resulting in adj. free cash flow of $330-$410 million. 
  • In terms of the longer-term outlook, on which we remind investors that management has solid visibility, we concur with management’s contention that the core turbocharger business is likely to be larger in 2030 than it is today and that GTX could generate free cash approximating the company’s current market capitalization over the next five years.
  • Our base case fair value estimate for GTX increases to $14 per share, reflecting an 8.5x multiple on our 2027E adjusted net income forecast and a fully diluted share count of ~179 million.

 

Radar Screen – July 2025

Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event

Companies discussed this month:  Albany International (AIN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (GT), Intel Corporation (INTC), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)*, Luxfer Holdings (LXFR), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), Netgear Inc. (NTGR), Sealed Air Corp. (SEE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), TriMas Corporation (TRS), XPO Inc. (XPO)

*New this month

Product Specialist

Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566