On September 17, 2014, Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A) announced that shares of Keysight Technologies Inc. will be distributed on November 1, 2014, to Agilent shareholders of record as of October 22, 2014. Keysight will begin regular way trading on November 3, 2014, on the NYSE under the symbol “KEYS”. Shareholders of record will receive one share of KEYS for every two shares of A owned. Shares of both Keysight and Agilent will begin trading on a when-issued basis on October 20, 2014. Agilent also announced a quarterly dividend of 13.2 cents per share of common stock will be paid on October 22, 2014 to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on Sept. 30, 2014. Completion of the spin-off still requires an effectiveness declaration of the company’s Form 10 filings from the SEC. Separately, Agilent announced that Mike McMullen, senior vice president, Agilent, and president of the company’s Chemical Analysis Group (CAG), will succeed William (Bill) Sullivan as CEO on March 18, 2015. William Sullivan will remain as an advisor through the end of the company’s fiscal year, Oct. 31, 2015, when he will retire.
As noted in the initial Agilent Technologies Inc. Spin-Off Report (September 16, 2014), fair value calculations would be adjusted based on the finalized distribution ratio, capital structure, dividend policy and changes in company/industry fundamentals. Accordingly, the fair value for Keysight has been revised to $49 (from $25) to reflect the updated share count. The fair value is based on the median of comparable price-to-sales, price-to-earnings, and EV-to-EBITDA multiples, with a range of $48.04 to $52.10.
The post-spin fair value for A remains intact at $40 per share. Following the spin-off, Agilent shares should receive a higher multiple than those of Keysight given the company’s industry leadership position, reduced cyclicality, and better long-term growth prospects. There also appears to be potential for further appreciation, considering that improved execution should be able to drive above-market core revenue growth and earnings leverage and, in turn, narrow the valuation disparity relative to peers. Agilent’s peer group trades at 3.2x F2014 revenue projections, 22x earnings, and 14x F2014 estimated EBITDA. On a relative basis, Agilent shares appear undervalued at 19x forward earnings, a 14% discount to peers – essentially in line with their five-year historical average. In the near term following the spin-off, KEYS shares could experience some volatility, as a portion of the investor base might gravitate toward the stability and more focused end-market composition of the new Agilent. Moreover, while recently reported financial results appear encouraging, with a return to year-over-year growth, Keysight could again exhibit negative growth comparables, particularly as visibility remains generally very limited across the technology supply chain. Considering historical and comparable multiples on earnings, sales, and EV/EBITDA, and cash flow, Keysight can be fairly valued at $49 per share and New Agilent at about $40 per share, for a pre-spin sum-of-the-parts value of $65 per share. Please see the Agilent Technologies Inc. Spin-Off Report dated September 16, 2014 for further details.