On Our Radar: The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)
On Our Radar: Coty Inc. (COTY)
Coty Inc. (NYSE: COTY), a global beauty company with brands across the fragrance, cosmetics as well as skin & body care
sectors, is undergoing a strategic review as well as a broader leadership and operational overhaul. On the former point,
COTY’s strategic review will focus on its Consumer Beauty business, specifically its ~$1.2 billion mass color cosmetics
business, which includes brands such as CoverGirl, Rimmel, Sally Hansen and Max Factor, as well as its Brazilian business,
which is comprised of myriad local brands generating ~$400 million in annual sales. The review will contemplate a range
of potential options, including a spin-off or sale as well as partnerships with the goal of maximizing value and
“strengthening” the company’s balance sheet. Amid this review, the Consumer Beauty business will be helmed by current
Board member Gordon von Bretten while the segment’s current chief brands officer, Stefano Curti, and the chief commercial
officer, Alexis Vaganay, will depart the company. On the operational front, the company also intends to more closely
integrate its Prestige Beauty and Consumer/Mass Fragrance businesses, which comprise ~69% of COTY’s consolidated
sales. In late-December 2025, the company announced the sale its remaining 25.8% stake in Wella to private-equity firm
KKR for $750 million in cash (as well as 45% of any proceeds from a future initial public offering after KKR has realized its preferred rate of return) as well as the appointment of Markus Strobel as interim chief executive officer (replacing Sue Nabi)
and Board chairman, as of January 1, 2026.
Currently, COTY operates two business segments: 1) Prestige (~63% of consolidated sales and ~70.5% of adj. EBITDA in the
June-ending F2025), which provides higher-end fragrance and skin care products, including brands, such as Burberry,
Calvin Klein, Chole, Escada, Gucci, Hugo Boss, Kiley, and Marc Jacobs; and 2) Consumer Beauty (~37% of consolidated
sales and ~29.5% of adj. EBITDA in the June-ending F2025), which provides skincare and fragrance for the so-called
“masses” under the aforementioned brands as well as Adidas, David Beckham, Bozzano, Bourjois, Jovan, Monange,
Nautica, Paixao, Risque and Vera Wang.
In terms of the outlook, management has anecdotally indicated that looking into F2026, “the market backdrop remains
complex. Consumer demand for beauty continues to be solid, particularly for fragrances across price points and formats.
At the same time, broader macroeconomic and tariff uncertainty is fueling cautious retailer ordering and a more
promotional competitive environment. Against this backdrop, Coty is launching major innovations, capturing new growth
opportunities with a multi-brand push into fragrance mists, and expanding distribution across fragrances. In parallel, the
Company is continuing to clean the baseline, including assuring that retailer inventories are rightsized relative to current
demand trends to drive alignment between sell-in and sell-out, and that the Company is rebalancing its resources within
Consumer Beauty to overdrive its profit engines, particularly mass fragrances.” More specifically, the company expects to
see a gradual improvement in sales over the course of the fiscal year with “like-for-like” (LFL) sales down 6%-8% in 1Q
F2026 and 3%-5% in 2Q 2026 with a return to year-over-year growth in 2H F2026. On the margin front, the company expects
gross margin pressure in 1H F2026 resulting in adj. EBITDA declining in the mid-to-high teens in 1Q F2026 and in the low
to-mid teens in 2Q F2026 albeit with a return to adj. EBITDA growth in 2H F2026. In terms of EPS, lower interest and taxes
is projected to support a high-single digit to mid-teen percent decline in 1H F2026 to $0.33-$0.36 with adj. EPS growth
resuming in 2H F2026. First-half F2026 free cash flow is expected to be more than $350 million and the company expects to
end the year with a leverage ratio below the 3.5x level at the end of 4Q F2025.
In terms of valuation, COTY could be compared with a range of competitors, including Beiersdorf (BEI GR), Colgate
Palmolive Company (NYSE: CL), e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (NYSE: ELF), The Estee lauder Company (NYSE: EL), Interparfums, Inc.
(NASDAQ: IPAR), Kenvue Inc. (NYSE: KVUE), Kering (KER FP), LVMH Moet Hennessey (MC FP), L’Oreal (OR FP), The
Procter & Gamble Company, Puig (PUIG SM), Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA), and Unilever Plc (ULVR LN) which, as a
group, trade, on average of ~13x 2026E EV/EBITDA (albeit in a wide range of 8.5x-22x). Applying a blended multiple of
~8x implies segment values of ~$6.5 billion and ~$2.0 billion, respectively.
Accounting for corporate costs as well as projected net debt yields a sum of the parts value of ~$4.0 billion or ~$4.50 per
share (based on a diluted share count of ~871 million).
On Our Radar: The Cooper Companies, Inc. (COO)
The Cooper Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ: COO), a global healthcare supplies/medical device company, appointed a new
chairman, Ms. Colleen Jay, of its Board of Directors in early-January to succeed the previous chair, Robert Weiss (who will
remain on the Board until next year) and is exploring strategic alternatives aimed at “identifying opportunities to enhance
long-term shareholder value”, potentially including partnerships, joint ventures, divestitures, mergers or other
combinations/transactions. (Amid the on-going review the company expects to focus on executing its expanded ~$2 billion
share repurchase authorization.) For context, these developments, in part, come amid management’s evaluation of
“constructive input” from shareholders, including activist-investor Jana Partners who holds a ~2.5 million share or ~1.25%
stake and is reportedly advocating for, among other things, combining its Vision business with Bausch + Lomb (or
EssilorLuxottica), which could tangentially spur M&A interest in the Surgical business from a range of potential acquirers,
including Blackstone and TPG (which are in the process of acquiring Hologic at a proposed price ~$18.3 billion or ~13.4x
2026E EV/EBITDA, by our calculation).
Currently, COO operates two operating segments: 1) Vision (67% of consolidated sales and ~93% of adj. segment EBITDA
in October-ending F2025); and 2) Surgical (33% of sales and ~7% of adj. segment EBITDA). In terms of guidance,
management’s full-year October-ending F2026 outlook calls for consolidated sales of $4.299-$4.338 billion, implying organic
growth of ~4.5%-5.5%, with adjusted EPS of $4.45-$4.60. By segment, the company expects F2026 Vision sales of $2.9-$2.925
billion, on organic growth of 4.5%-5.5% with full-year Surgical sales of $1.399-$1.413 billion, implying 4%-5% year-over
year growth. F2026E free cash flow (FCF) is projected to be $575-$625 million, which comes in the context of the company’s
internal goal of generating cumulative FCF of greater than $2.2 billion in F2026E-F2028E.
In terms of valuation, for its part COO has traded at ~16x-17x forward EV/EBITDA; as well, publicly traded peers to its
Vision (e.g., contact lens), including Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) vision care, Alcon (ALC SW), and Bausch Health
(NYSE: BHC) and EssilorLuxottica (EL FP), which trade at ~12.5x 2027E EV/EBITDA (in a range of 6.5x-15.5x) while peers
to Surgical could, to be varying degrees, could include Vitrolife Group (VITR SS), Johnson & Johnson, Baxter International
(NYSE: BAX), Medtronic (NYSE: MDT), Hologic (NASDAQ: HOLX), which, again is in the process of being acquired at
~13.4x 2026E EV/EBITDA, as well as ViaCord, a division of Revvity (NYSE: RVTY) and, to a lesser degree, Bayer (BAYN
GR) and AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV), which as group trade, on average, at ~11.5x 2027E EV/EBITDA (in a range of 7.5x-14.5x).
Applying a blended multiple of ~13.5x to F2027E implies total segment value of nearly $20 billion. Accounting for corporate
costs, capitalized at the corporate average, as well as projected net debt implies total value of $17.75 billion or ~$90 per share
(based on a diluted share count of ~198 million).
On Our Radar: Barrick Mining (NYSE: B)
In recent months, Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE: B) has been evaluating/preparing for a potential separation of its
North American gold assets, likely via an initial public offering (IPO) with the possibility of a spin-off, during 2026.
Seemingly, the assets being evaluated for separation would include the company’s joint venture (JV) interests in Nevada
Gold Mines (NGM) and Pueblo Viejo as well as the wholly owned gold discovery in Nevada, called Fourmile.
In terms of guidance, gold production for 2026 is expected to be 2.9-3.25 million ounces (compared with 3.26 million ounces
in 20265, or 3.03 million ounces excluding the divested Hemlo & Tongon assets. Gold cost guidance for 2026, including COS
of $1,870-$2,070, TCC of $1,330-$1,470 and AISC of $1,760-$1,950, is based on a gold price assumption of ~$4,500 per ounce.
Copper production for 2026 is projected to be 190,000-220,000 tonnes (compared with 220,000 tonnes in 2025), with copper
COS of $3.05-$3.35 per pound, C1 cash costs of $2.20-$2.45 per pound and AISC of $3.45-$3.75 per pound. Copper cost
guidance is based on a copper price assumption of ~$5.50 per pound.
For valuation, peers to B’s North American (NA) gold assets could include, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM),
Newmont Corp. (NYSE: NEM) and Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC), which trade at ~5.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA (in a range
of 4.5x-7.5x) while the remainder of the company’s global assets (i.e., rest-of-world or RoW) could be compared with
Anglogold Ashanti Plc (NYSE: AU), Endeavour Mining Plc (EDV LN), Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI SJ) and Harmony Gold Mining
Co. Ltd. (HAR SJ), which trade at ~3.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA (in a range of 2.0x-4.5x).
Applying a blended multiple of ~5.5x to estimated 2026E EBITDA implies a combined value of ~$84.25 billion, comprised
of $60.65 billion for North America (NA) and $23.6 billion for the Rest of the World (RoW). Accounting for projected net
cash yields a base case sum of the parts valuation of almost $88 billion or $51.50 per share (based on a diluted share count
of 1,707 million).
Radar Screen – April 2026
The Radar Screen highlights 15 to 20 companies each month that are potential candidates for a breakup, restructuring or takeout. This report provides a summary of each situation, and covers a wide range of potential restructuring stories with varying degrees of upside potential.
This month’s Radar Screen includes the following companies:
- Barrick Mining Corp (B)
- Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)
- Coty Inc. (COTY)
- Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT)
- Luxfer Holdings (LXFR)
- Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS)
- Matthews International Corp. (MATW)
- Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
- PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)
- Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
- Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY)*
- The Cooper Companies (COO)
- The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)
- Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)
- Terex Corporation (TEX)
* New entry this month
PCS Research Group welcomes and encourages your feedback. Please feel free to call us if we can be of service.
Radar Screen – March 2026
The Radar Screen highlights 15 to 20 companies each month that are potential candidates for a breakup, restructuring or takeout. This report provides a summary of each situation, and covers a wide range of potential restructuring stories with varying degrees of upside potential.
This month’s Radar Screen includes the following companies:
- Barrick Mining Corp (B) *
- Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)
- Coty Inc. (COTY)
- Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT)
- Luxfer Holdings (LXFR)
- Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) *
- Matthews International Corp. (MATW)
- Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
- PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)
- Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
- The Cooper Companies (COO)
- The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)
- Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)
- Terex Corporation (TEX)
* New entry this month
PCS Research Group welcomes and encourages your feedback. Please feel free to call us if we can be of service.
Radar Screen – February 2026
The Radar Screen highlights 15 to 20 companies each month that are potential candidates for a breakup, restructuring or takeout. This report provides a summary of each situation, and covers a wide range of potential restructuring stories with varying degrees of upside potential.
This month’s Radar Screen includes the following companies:
- Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)
- Coty Inc. (COTY)
- Genuine Parts Company (GPC)
- Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT)
- Luxfer Holdings (LXFR)
- Matthews International Corp. (MATW)
- Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
- PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)
- Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
- The Cooper Companies (COO) *
- The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)
- Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)
- XPO Inc. (XPO)
- Terex Corporation (TEX)
* New entry this month
PCS Research Group welcomes and encourages your feedback. Please feel free to call us if we can be of service.
Radar Screen – January 2026
The Radar Screen highlights 15 to 20 companies each month that are potential candidates for a breakup, restructuring or takeout. This report provides a summary of each situation, and covers a wide range of potential restructuring stories with varying degrees of upside potential.
This month’s Radar Screen includes the following companies:
- Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)
- Coty Inc. (COTY)
- Genuine Parts Company (GPC)
- Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT)
- Luxfer Holdings (LXFR)
- Matthews International Corp. (MATW)
- Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
- PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)
- Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
- The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)
- Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)
- XPO Inc. (XPO)
- Terex Corporation (TEX) *
* New entry this month
PCS Research Group welcomes and encourages your feedback. Please feel free to call us if we can be of service.
Radar Screen – December 2025
The Radar Screen highlights 15 to 20 companies each month that are potential candidates for a breakup, restructuring or takeout. This report provides a summary of each situation, and covers a wide range of potential restructuring stories with varying degrees of upside potential.
This month’s Radar Screen includes the following companies:
- Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)
- Coty Inc. (COTY)
- Genuine Parts Company (GPC)
- Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT)
- Luxfer Holdings (LXFR)
- Matthews International Corp. (MATW)
- Middleby Corporation (MIDD)
- Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
- PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)
- Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
- The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)
- Visat, Inc. (VSAT) *
- XPO Inc. (XPO)
* New entry this month
PCS Research Group welcomes and encourages your feedback. Please feel free to call us if we can be of service.