Our Our Radar: Anglo American (AAL LN)
On Our Radar: AkzoNobel NV (AKZA NA)
On Our Radar: AFRY AB (AFRY SS)
On Our Radar: Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)
Viasat, Inc. (NASDAQ: VSAT), a communications company providing high-speed, digital satellite broadband as well as
secure wireless networking services (and products), has indicated that it is “looking at all areas of our portfolio and capital
structure for value-accretive opportunities”, which, among other things, could ultimately portend a separation of the
company’s Communications Services and Defense & Advanced Technologies (DAT) segments (given their divergent
growth, margin and valuation profiles). For additional context, in August 2025, Carronde Capital, which was founded by
Elliot Management alum Dan Gropper and reportedly had a ~2.6% stake in the company, publicly stated that its contention
that the full separation of DAT, by either spin-off or IPO, could unlock estimated value of ~$50-$100 per share.
The company currently reports two segments: 1) Communications Services (73% of consolidated sales in March-ending
F2025 albeit with an operating margin approaching breakeven); and 2) Defense & Advanced Technologies (27% of F2025
sales but with a high-teens EBIT margin profile). In terms of guidance, for the March-ending F2026, management projects
“low-single digit” consolidated top-line growth with adjusted EBITDA being roughly flat year-over-year. By segment, Communication Services (CS) sales are expected to be roughly flat with F2025, as “low-double digit growth in aviation
services” is assumed to be offset by “a lower rate of declines at FS&O”, while Defense & Advanced Technologies (DAT)
segment sales are expected to grow “in the mid-teens”, driven by double-digit growth at both information security & cyber
defense as well as space & mission systems. On a consolidated basis, capital expenditures are expected to be ~$1.2 billion
in F2026 and the company expects to achieve free cash flow positivity in F2027.
Public comparisons to VSAT’s Communications Services (CS) segment, which serves the aviation, maritime and
government sectors, could include, among others, Gogo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOGO), Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:
IRDM), KVH Industries (NASDAQ: KVHI), SES SA (SESG FP), Eutelsat Communications (ETL FP) and Thales Group (HO
FP), which trade at ~6.5x 2027E EV/EBITDA (in a range of ~3.5x-10.5x), while the Defense & Advanced Technologies (DAT)
segment, which focuses on information, communication & cyber security for both the government and commercial sectors,
could be compared with Comtech Telecommunications (NASDAQ: CMTL), EchoStar Corp. (NASDAQ: SATS), General
Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Gilat Satellite Networks (NASDAQ: GILT), L3 Harris Technologies (NYSE: LHX), Safran SA (SAF
FP), BAE Systems (BA/LN), and Thales Group, which trade at ~13.5x 2027E EV/EBITDA (in a range of ~8.5x-21x).
Additionally, mid-cap defense technology concerns, such as AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV), Kratos Defense & Security
(NASDAQ: KTOS), Karman Holdings (NYSE: KRMN), Mercury Systems (NASDAQ: MRCY), and Redwire (NYSE: RDW)
trade at ~35x 2027E EV/EBITDA (in a range of 22.5x-50x).
Applying a low-end multiple of 3.5x to 2027E EBITDA at Communications Services (CS) and a ~17.5x multiple for Defense
& Advanced Technologies (DAT), implies collective value of ~$12.5 billion. Accounting for projected net debt yields a sum
of the parts valuation of ~$7.25 billion or ~$52 per share (based on a diluted share count of ~140 million).
On Our Radar: Terex Corporation (TEX)
Terex Corporation (NYSE: TEX), a global manufacturer of lifting & material processing equipment (as well as services), has
in conjunction with the late-October 2025 announcement of plans to merge with REV Group (currently NYSE: REVG),
predominantly a manufacturer of fire trucks, disclosed a strategic review focused on its Aerials segment (in an effort to
spin-off/divest business lines with exposure to so-called “cyclical end markets”). On the merger front, the cash & stock
transaction awards REV shareholders 0.9809 shares of the combined company (equal to ~42% of the new Terex entity) along
with $8.71 per share in cash (or ~$425 million). New Terex, post the transaction’s expected closing in 1H 2026, is projected
to generate ~$7.8 billion in consolidated net sales along with a blended EBITDA multiple of ~11% (excluding the impact of
the ~$75 million of run-rate synergies expected to be realized through 2028, of which ~50% is expected in the first 12
months). The combined company is expected to possess a post-deal leverage ratio of ~2.5x (including synergies). The
transaction, which was unanimously approved by both Boards, contemplates a total equity value of ~$7 billion and an
overall enterprise value of ~$9 billion, implying a ~10.5x pre-synergy multiple or ~8.5x post synergies. (Anecdotally,
management indicates that the post-spin margin profile of the combined business, including the potential divestiture of the Aerials segment as well as the realization of synergies, would be ~14% or roughly 300 basis points above its current
consolidated expectation of ~11%.)
Currently, TEX operates three primary business segments: 1) Materials Processing (MP); 2) Aerial Work Platforms (AWP),
which generated ~$2.9 billion of sales (up ~2.5% year-over-year and comprising ~58.5% of total sales) and ~$378 million of
adj. EBITDA, excluding corporate cost allocation, in 2024 (compared with $403 million in 2023); and 3) the Environmental
Solutions Group (ESG). On a consolidated basis, TEX has guided to full-year 2025E sales of $5.3-$5.5 billion with adjusted
EBITDA and EPS of ~$640 million and $4.70-$5.10, respectively. Full-year free cash flow (FCF) is expected to be $300-$350
million, implying a conversion rate of >$120 million. By segment, Materials Processing (MP) and Aerials (AWP) are expected
to post top-line declines in the low-single digits (LDD) and high-single digits (HDD), respectively (off bases of ~$1.9 billion
and $2.9 billion), while Environmental Solutions sales are expected to advance in the low double-digits (LDD), on an annual
basis. For its part, REV Group currently reports two segments: 1) Specialty Vehicles; and 2) Recreational Vehicles, which
collectively generated $2.463 billion in sales and $229.5 million of adj. EBITDA in 2025 (compared with $2.38 billion and
$162.8 million, respectively, in 2024).
In terms of valuation, public peers to TEX/REV could, among others, include Alamo Group (NYSE: ALG), Astec Industries
(NASDAQ: ASTE), Douglas Dynamics (NYSE: PLOW), Federal Signal Corporation (NYSE: FSS), Haulotte Corp. (PIG FP),
Herc Holdings (NYSE: HRI), The Manitowoc Company (NYSE: MTW), Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK), Palfinger AG (PAL
AV), Thor Industries (NYSE: THO), United Rentals (NYSE: URI) and Winnebago Industries (NYSE: WGO), which trade at
~10.0x 2026E (in a range of ~6.5x-14.5x).
Applying a blended multiple of ~9.0x to 2026E adjusted EBITDA implies an enterprise value of ~$9.9 billion while
accounting for projected net debt yields a sum-of-the-parts fair value of ~$7.8 billion or ~$68 per share (based on a diluted
share count of ~114.5 million).
On Our Radar: Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE: SWK)
Stanley Black & Decker has been active on the acquisition and divestiture fronts in recent years, and could consider
divestment, via spin-off or sale, of its remaining Industrial segment assets, largely comprised of its Engineered Fasteners
business, in an effort to complete its broader objective of ultimately becoming a pure-play Tools business. To that end, SWK
currently reports two operating segments: (1) Tools & Outdoor (84.5% of 2023 sales and ~76% of adj. segment profit), which
is comprised of the Power Tools Group (PTG) and Hand Tools, Accessories & Storage (HTAS) and Outdoor Power
Equipment (Outdoor) businesses; and (2) Industrial (15.5% of 2023 sales and ~24% of adj. segment profit), which is
comprised of the Engineered Fastening and Infrastructure businesses. [Note: SWK has made previous appearances on The
Radar Screen prior to the December 2023 sale of Stanley Infrastructure to Epiroc AB (NASDAQ: EPIA) for $760 million as
well as the December 2021 announcement that it would sell most of its Security assets, including the Commercial Electronic
and Healthcare Security business lines, to Securitas AB (SECU STO) for ~$3.2 billion in cash and the December 2016 sale of
its Mechanical Security business to dormakaba Holding AG (DOKA SW) for $725 million (transactions, in which should be
noted, the company utilized capital loss carryforwards to minimize tax leakage).] In late-December 2025, the company announced a deal to sell its Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing (CAM)to Howmet Aerospace (NYSE: HWM) for ~$1.8billion in cash (with expected net proceeds of $1.53-$1.6 billion).
In 2022, SWK posted consolidated sales up 11% to $16.9 billion (versus $15.3 billion in 2021) with adj. EBITDA of ~$1.53
billion (compared with ~$2.46 billion in 2021) and adj. EPS from continuing operations of $4.62 (compared with $10.18 in
the prior year). In 2023, consolidated sales fell ~7% to $15.781 billion, reflecting declines of ~7% and ~4% and Tools &
Outdoor and Industrial, respectively, with adjusted EBITDA of $~$1.14 billion and adjusted EPS from continuing ops of
$1.45. In F2024, organic sales were roughly flat with adj. EBITDA of ~$1.6 billion and adj. EPS of $4.36. For 2025E, based
on a range of potential demand scenarios (i.e., organic growth trending anywhere from being flat to down 1%), the company
projects adjusted EPS of ~$4.55. Free cash flow is expected to be ~$600 million. Longer-term, the company endeavors to
drive organic growth 2x-3x the overall market with 25%-plus adj. gross margins along with free cash equal to, or exceeding
net income and cash flow return on investment (CFROI) between 12%-15%.
Based on current trends, management commentary, and current consensus forecasts, SWK can be reasonably projected to
post, on a consolidated basis, sales of ~$16.0 billion and adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.965 billion in 2025E. By segment, it can be
projected that the Tools & Storage and Industrial segments could post revenue of ~$13.5 billion and ~$2.5 billion,
respectively, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.715 billion and ~$530 million. Peers for Tools & Storage, which could include
Makita Corp. (6586 JP), Husqvarna AB (HUSQA SS, HUSQB SS), and Snap-on Inc. (NYSE: SNA), trade at 10.5x 2025E
EV/EBITDA (in a range of ~7.5x-12.0x), while Industrial peers, such as Ingersoll Rand (NYSE: IR), Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:
ITW) and Atlas Copco (ATCOA SS), trade at about 17.5x 2025E EV/EBITDA (in a range of ~17.0-18.5x). Applying discounted
multiples of 10x and 16.5x to 2025E EBITDA projections yields segment enterprise values of ~$17.15 billion and ~$8.725
billion for Tools & Storage and Industrial, respectively.
Accounting for corporate costs capitalized at ~11.5x (or the weighted average of applied segment multiples), as well as
projected net debt, implies a sum-of-the-parts fair value of ~$17.35 billion, or $115 per share (based on diluted share count
of ~150.5 million).
On Our Radar: Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY)
Surgery Partners, Inc. (NASDAQ: SGRY), an owner/operator of short-stay surgical & ambulatory facilities, could evaluate
a range of strategic transactions, including, among other options, the separation of its Surgical Hospital assets, under
pressure from activist-investor Ortelius Advisors, reportedly a ~1% holder, who has also publicly called for a refreshment
of SGRY’s Board & Management as well as a broad review of strategic alternatives, which could facilitate improved capital
allocation (toward share repurchases & debt reduction), citing the company’s “abysmal stock performance” on both an
absolute and relative basis. Per the investor, “a divestiture of all of the surgical hospitals should generate billions of dollars
in asset sales, and afford the wherewithal to buy back stock, pay down debt, and improve credit worthiness. The remaining
entity, a pure-play ambulatory surgery centers business, would exhibit stronger revenue growth, higher EBITDA margins,
and larger free cash flow yields, and warrant a much expanded EV/EBITDA multiple”. [Note: Ortelius launched a proxy
contest involving Brookdale Senior Living in 2025.] For additional context, in early 2025, Bain Capital Private Equity, still
currently a ~38.5% holder, offered to acquire SGRY for $25.75 per share (or ~$3.2 billion). The offer was ultimately rejectedin mid-2025 but the investor indicated that it “remained tremendously optimistic about the business” and that it looked
forward to continuing to work with the company as “long-term investors and collaborators”.
Currently, the company reports one operating segment, Surgical Facilities, which owns & operates a national network of
176 surgical facilities, including 157 ambulatory surgery centers (or ASC’s) and 19 surgical hospitals, in 30 U.S. states. For
full-year 2025, total sales increased 6.2% to $3.3 billion (compared with $3.1 billion in 2024), with same-store growth of 4.9%.
Full-year adjusted EBITDA was up ~3.5% to $526.2 million (compared with $508.2 million in 2024 and $534.3 million in
2023). In terms of 2026E guidance, management projects, excluding any potential M&A activities, full-year sales of $3.35
$3.45 billion and adjusted EBITDA of “at least $530 million”.
Competitors to SGRY include HCA Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE: HCA), and Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE: THC), which trade
at ~8.0x 2027E EV/EBITDA (in a range of 6x-9x), as well as Optum, Inc., a subsidiary of UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH)
that purchased Amedisys and LHC Group in 2025 for ~$3.3 billion and 5.4%, respectively, which trades at ~9.5x. Proxy
peers include Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACHC), AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (NYSE: AMN),
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (NYSE: BKD), Encompass Health Corp. (NYSE: EHC), The Ensign Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:
ENSG), ModivCare Inc. (NASDAQ: MODV), Option Care Health, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPCH), Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.
(NYSE: MD), RadNet, Inc. (NASDAQ: RDNT), and Select Medical Holdings Corp. (NYSE: SEM), which trade at ~9.5x 2027E
EV/EBITDA (in a range of 7.5x-15x). Applying a 9.0x blended multiple to estimated 2027E EBITDA implies value of ~$5.1
billion. Accounting for projected net debt yields a sum of the parts valuation of ~$13 per share (based on a diluted share
count of ~127 million).