The Weekly Wrap-Up provides summaries of recent publications from Hidden Opportunities including links to the full-length research reports. If you haven’t engaged with the research over the past seven days, the Weekly Wrap-Up will quickly update you on our newest and highest conviction ideas.
Newest Publications & Updates
UPDATE: APi Group Corporation (APG)
October 6, 2023
APG favorably reprices its term loans, resulting in annual cash savings of ~$4 million, and extends maturities until 2029; remains committed to its 2.0x-2.5x leverage target by the end of 2023; fair value remains $31 per share
This morning, before the market open, APG disclosed it had successfully repriced its 2026 and 2029 Term Loans; resulting in a 25 basis point reduction in the applicable margin (previously SODR plus 2.5% and 2.75%, respectively) and ~$4 million of annual cash savings.
As well, following an $100 million prepayment on its 2026 Term Loan, to be paid when the transaction closes, the maturity on the remining ~$420 million will be extended to 2029 (on the same terms as its 2029 Loan).
Following the transaction, management indicates that it will have ~$1.91 billion of term loan debt (compared with ~$2.2 billion at the end of 2022) and its remains committed to achieving its 2.0x-2.5x leverage target by the end of 2023. (For our part, we forecast the company’s leverage ratio will be ~2.35x at year-end.)
Recall that following 2Q 2023 results in early-August, APG increased its full-year 2023 sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.015-$7.075 billion (versus the prior guide of $6.875-$7.025 billion and its initial range of $6.8-$6.95 billion) and $765-$785 million (up from $740-$780 million previously and $735-$775 million initially), respectively. The company maintained the expectation that free cash flow conversion would be at or above 65% (of adj. EBITDA).
For 3Q 2023 specifically, the company projects sales of $1.86-$1.89 billion and adj. EBITDA of $215 million-$225 million (see Exhibit #1 on page 2), representing growth of 7%-9% and 16%-21% growth, respectively. Anecdotally, the company also hinted that following the completion of a $35 million acquisition within the core Safety Service segment at the end of 2Q 2023 that it expected to complete at least two more bolt-on transactions, again within the core Safety Services segment, during 3Q 2023. For context, the combined annual net revenue contribution from these three acquisitions was projected to be ~$35 million (as well as immediately accretive to the company’s EBITDA margin.)
Anecdotally, the company has maintained its long-term (i.e., 2025) financial goals, which target generating ~60% of its sales from inspections, services & monitoring as well as a consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin of 13%. Free cash flow conversion is targeted to be 80% (relative to adj. EBITDA and up from ~65% in 2023).
Our base case fair value estimate for Api Group Corporation (APG) remains $31 per share, reflecting a blended multiple of ~11.5x on F2024E adjusted EBITDA of ~$885 million along with projected net debt of ~$1.30 billion (see Exhibit #2 on page 2).
View our initiation report here.
UPDATE: PAR Technology (PAR)
October 5, 2023
PAR wins exclusive POS agreement from Burger King North America, providing us increased confidence in its 20%-30% recurring revenue growth forecast (as well as it ability approach cash flow positivity/profitability in the relative near-term); on the transactional front, commentary suggests a sale of the Government business (and/or incremental M&A at Restaurants) could also emerge in the relative near-term
Today, before the market open, PAR announced that it has been selected as the exclusive point-of-sale (POS) provider, for both software and services at the traditional Burger King restaurants in North America. The deal includes both its Brink POS system/software as well as MENU Link technology, which facilities/streamlines the customer’s omni-channel ordering and
kitchen management operations.
While we will are keen on gathering some more specifics on the financial impact of this announcement, the deal certainly increases our confidence in PAR’s ability to achieve it 20%-30% ARR growth target (as well as approach
cash flow positivity/profitability in the relative near-term); more broadly, we think the win lends credibility to the management’s contention that PAR’s investments, both organic and acquisitive, in its unified commerce platform capabilities in recent years will help deepen/consolidate its relationships with existing (and increasingly new) customers.
Fundamental catalysts aside, we note that recent management commentary seemingly suggests that several transactional-related catalysts could be on the table in the relative near-term, including: 1) a sale of the Government
business; 2) accretive M&A within the Restaurant segment (that accelerates PAR’s path to profitability) as well as; 3) potential for interest in the company from either strategic and/or private equity suitors.
As disclosed in the 2Q 2023 10-Q, the company has formally indicated that it is evaluating strategic alternatives for its Government business; more recently, at a recent investor forum PAR’s CEO indicated that it is “a very
good time to divest a business in this category (see Exhibit #1 on page 2).
For now, our fair value estimate for PAR remains $45 per share, reflecting value of $50 per share for the Restaurants/Retail segment, based on a blended 2024E sales multiple of 4.5x and $4 per share for the Government business, based on a 12.5x 2024E EV/EBITDA multiple, and accounting for ~$290.5 million of projected net debt.
View our initiation report here.
UPDATE: IDT Corporation (IDT)
October 3, 2023
Dismissal of class-action claims related to the 2013 spin-off/2017 sale of Straight Path Communications lifts a long-running overhang for IDT
This week, the Court of Chancery in Delaware dismissed a class action lawsuit against the company related to the 2013 spin-off and subsequent sale for $3.1 billion to Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ).
While the long-running lawsuit had been seeking ~$600 million in damages and the judge indicated that while some of the company’s tactics were “unfair” the conclusion was that ultimately all parties’ economic interests were aligned, and that the plaintiff suffered “no damages”. [Note: the source document can be accessed at https://courts.delaware.gov/Opinions/Download.aspx?id=353660.]
To be sure, while this decision really did not impact the current business, its operations or the underlying fundamentals it does remove a significant overhang, in terms of any potential payout, on the stock (e.g., the shares were up ~20% today).
Tentatively, the company expects to report July-ending F2023 results after the market close on October 12, 2023 and hold a conference call that evening at 5:30 p.m. (ET); call-in at (888)-506-0062. (We continue to expect solid results at the company’s growth businesses, particularly NRS, offset by on-going declines at its Traditional Communication segment; as well, in the absence of a significant ramp in share repurchase activity during the quarter, the company’s net cash balance, which stood at $138.5 million or ~$5.40 per share at the end of 3Q F2023, will likely have continued to show modest expansion.
Our base case fair value estimate for IDT remains ~$55 per share, which values IDT’s Traditional Communications segment at 2.5x 2023E EBITDA, applies sales multiples of 2.5x and ~7.0x to the company’s net2phone and Fintech businesses, respectively, and accounts for projected net cash.
Radar Screen – October 2023
Monthly publication providing ongoing analysis on companies where we see potential for a value-unlocking event
Companies discussed this month: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN), APi Group Corp. (APG), California Resources Corp. (CRC), Carrier Global Corp. (CARR), Crown Holdings Inc. (CCK), FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (FLT), Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Inc. (FLT), Enhabit Inc. (EHAB), Hasbro, Inc. (HAS), IAC Inc. (IAC), Liberty Broadband Corp. (LBRDK), Matthews International Corp. (MATW), PAR Technology Corp. (PAR), RCI Hospitality Inc. (RICK), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Tiptree Inc. (TIPT), Western Digital Corp. (WDC)
Product Specialist
Rich Albanese
ralbanese@pcsresearchgroup.com
+1 646-839-5566