On March 22, 2011, the Board of Directors of Punch Taverns plc announced its decision to proceed with the spin-off of the managed pub business as Spirit Pub Company plc. The decision followed the announcement made in October 2010 that the company had begun a comprehensive review of company strategy, operating performance, and capital structure. The strategic review was initiated to address the sizeable debt burden in an environment of slowing discretionary spending, falling property values, and a UK ban on smoking that took effect on July 1, 2007, all of which contributed to the company’s significantly diminished profitability and market capitalization since peak valuations in mid-2007.
The demerger resolution was approved by the company’s shareholders on July 26, 2011. As a result, on August 1, 2011, 803 managed pubs-Punch Pub Company-as well as 549 leased pubs were spun off as part of Spirit Pub Company plc, with 5,080 pubs within the leased division-Punch Partnerships-continuing as Punch Taverns plc. Of the 549 leased pubs assigned to Spirit, it is expected that up to 100 will be converted to managed pubs, with the balance disposed of through periodic sales.
Of the 5,080 pubs assigned to Punch Taverns, periodic disposals since the demerger have reduced the size of the estate by 76 pubs. Of the remaining 5,004 pubs, the company’s core estate comprises 2,951 pubs, with the remaining 2,053 pubs having been designated as non-core, turnaround pubs to be disposed of over the next five years at an average rate of approximately 500 per annum. In addition, Punch Taverns continues to hold a 50 percent joint venture interest in Matthew Clark (Holdings) Limited, a drinks wholesaler and distributor operated in partnership with CHAMP Private Equity.
Based on the financial information presented below, one could argue that the overleveraged nature of the company’s capital structure-with net debt of approximately ten times EBITDA-and the proximity to certain covenants within the company’s securitizations precludes the possibility of establishing an equity position with a favorable risk/reward outcome. However, despite the precarious state in which the company continues to operate, it is worth observing that-at the current price-cash and investments held outside of the securitizations may very well provide one with a margin of safety sufficient to justify such a position. Specifically, with £113 million in unrestricted cash and a 50 percent joint venture interest in Matthew Clark carried at £43 million-not held as collateral for the securitizations-the liquidation value of £156 million is equivalent to 23.5 pence per share, more than double the current share price of 11 pence.
This unusual risk/reward opportunity appears to be a consequence of the following: a spin-off of the wrong profile (i.e., debt-laden), brought to market at the wrong time (i.e., post-financial crisis environment), and now priced (both equity and debt) as if there is a high probability of failure; yet, which appears to have a reasonable possibility of accretively deleveraging-and is in the initial phases of doing so-and for which the current pricing permits a multiples-of-money return in exchange for the obvious risk. Ergo, the asymmetrically positioned common equity of Punch Taverns plc is submitted for your consideration.